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- "The question is whether the bull market can continue without semis participating
"The question is whether the bull market can continue without semis participating
DC Lite #715
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1. Broad selloff. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 fell by the most in over a year and a half. The Nasdaq-100 and Semiconductors had the worst days since Covid.
2. Oversold Semis. Semiconductor stocks are now oversold for the first time since the tariff tantrum in Apr'25. See the full dashboard here.
3. SPX vs. Semis. "Post-midterms, the question is whether the bull market can continue without semis participating. This year owning the S&P 500 on days the semi industry is positive has produced a 70% gain. Semi down days SP500 has lost 34%. No industry has dictated index performance this much."
4. Recycled capex. "More than 80% of AI-related revenues are still just coming from 'recycled capex', rather than from businesses and consumers outside the ecosystem that are willing to pay for AI-based services."
5. AI liabilities. "Only 15% of debt and lease commitments appear on balance sheet for the big seven AI companies; that may explain why their credit spreads have been widening rapidly"
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