"VIX upside convexity has gone extremely bid while SPX downside convexity remains very offered"

1. Dollar positioning. Institutional investors have piled back into USD in recent weeks.

2. BTC vs. 200MA. "Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day on Aug 19 after 289 sessions below, the 3rd-longest stretch since 2014. 51 sessions on it is +19.2%; the 2019 reclaim was +62% at this point and 2023's +13%, then +55% and +36% a year out. Friday $82,546, -34% from the peak. Trend reclaimed."

3. VIX skew vs. SPX skew. "VIX upside convexity has gone extremely bid while SPX downside convexity remains very offered ... as a colleague on our index vol desk said, 'there is almost a higher probability of VIX 25+ than there is of SPX -2%'"

4. EBIT margins. "Corporate margins continue to shoot the moon as a combination of cyclical and secular forces continue to play out. The higher realized numbers go, the more the forward-looking estimates extrapolate. And this isn't just a large-cap phenomenon."

5. Valuation vs. profitability. "When we map recent developments onto our Valuation vs Profitability framework chart, we can see that the market is now trading close to three standard deviations below its long-term trend."

ICYMI