"Anyone concerned about US reliance on AI, look no further"

1. Price vs. breadth. "Despite the new 52-week high in the S&P 500, more than 75% of stocks are down double digits. and over 37% are down 20% or more."

2. Concentration. "One of the main reasons so many breadth indicators are off the charts is because the concentration in the index is like nothing we've ever experienced. The top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 are equal to the bottom 434. (67-500)"

3. AI vs. SPX. "Anyone concerned about US reliance on AI, look no further ... a basket of 42 AI stocks accounts for 60%-80% of all S&P earnings growth, price returns and capital spending since Jan 2024"

4. Agentic risk vs. HALO. "Positioning for bounces in non-AI Cyclicals requires finding stocks with less risk from AI agents - look for Cyclicals with more exposure to heavier physical assets ('HALO') ... the industry group exposures are helpful proxies for where AI agent risk is and isn't."

5. OpenAI ARR. "As much as the $70B hockey sticks charts were fun to look at, $50B of OpenAI ARR implies a similar y/y growth rate to Jul and Aug (225%+ y/y), which makes more sense. Still looks like a hockey stick..."

ICYMI