"Companies are switching their top model more than ever"

1. NER Pulse. "ADP's weekly pulse has private employers adding an average of 23,750 jobs a week over the past four weeks, up from 20,000 the week before. That's a monthly pace near 100,000, well above the September BLS private number of +46,000."

2. High Yield credit spreads. "Tell me why we're all supposed to freak out about CCC spreads blowing out when the other 90% of the junk bond market remains relatively calm. If this is the first domino, the rest of the market hasn't gotten the memo."

3. Central banks vs. gold. "Global central banks remain on pace with gold accumulation this August, with reported net buying totalling 39t ... On a y-t-d basis, central banks have reported total purchases of 170t."

4. Fed Model. "Booming earnings aside, there is rising pressure on the valuation side coming from rates. The chart below shows three iterations of the Fed model and depending on your version of the equity P/E (forward, trailing, CAPE), the market is either still fine or getting closer to the danger zone."

5. AI model wars. "Companies are switching their top model more than ever. The monthly share of firms switching providers reached a record 8% in September. This is why: 1/ ARR is a dumb measure for AI spend. There is no 'RR.' 2/ Prices and margins will continue to fall for AI companies."

ICYMI