"The Energy sector has never mattered more for stock market returns"

1. Breakeven employment. "Breakeven payroll growth--the growth we'd need to keep the unemployment rate unchanged--is functionally 0 right now, so in that context a +51K three-month trend is slightly expansionary."

2. FAO Food Price Index. "Global food prices extended gains in September, reaching the highest since November 2022 as mounting geopolitical and weather disruptions roil the farm sector."

3. R2K short interest. Short interest (as % of shares outstanding) in the Russell 2000 has risen to the 99.8th percentile.

4. Rate-sensitive sectors. "Interest rate-sensitive sectors are now the most oversold they have been in five years."

5. SPX vs. Energy. "The Energy sector has never mattered more for stock market returns. Over the last 252-days (one year) the S&P 500 lost 5.5% on Energy up days, a record low. The index gained 21.3% on Energy down days, a record high."

ICYMI