"The S&P 500 has never peaked for the year in June"

1. Card spending. "Here is total debit/credit card spend by income tercile. I strip out gas spending to avoid that biasing up lower-income spend in '26 (since gas takes up a larger % of total spending for these folks). Can see clearly the uptick in lower-income spending that began in early '26".

2. Household cash. "U.S. households are sitting on $3.2 trillion of cash".

3. SPX peaks by month. "Good time to remember the S&P 500 has never peaked for the year in June. This is the only month to never peak for the year. Given the most recent ATH was on June 2, could this year be the first? I say no."

4. Tech dispersion. "Dispersion within the Information Technology sector is widening. As AI adoption continues to surge, industries like Communications Equipment and Semiconductors are showing strong relative performance, effectively decoupling from Software and IT Services."

5. Semis vs. 200DMA. Even with the recent pullback, Semiconductors (SOX) remain ~60% (close to 3 STD) above the 200-day moving average.

ICYMI