"The dollar's risk-off credentials are not what they were"

1. DXY vs. US conflicts. "The dollar's risk-off credentials are not what they were ... structural headwinds for the dollar from long-term overvaluation and persistently large fiscal deficits will increasingly dictate its direction."

2. Global private credit. Heavy withdrawal "activity is only occurring in one of three main investor channels, retail ... The majority of private credit AUM sits within institutional funds, where periodic investor withdrawals aren't an option."

3. SPX MOC imbalance. "2nd largest sum of buy imbalance over the last month in 3 yrs ($43b)"

4. Q1 SPX EPS growth. With 63% of the S&P 500 reported, the blended YoY EPS growth rate for Q1 is 27.1% which would mark the strongest growth since Q4'21.

5. SPX EPS outlook. Analysts now expect at least 20% YoY growth for every quarter this year.

ICYMI