"Memory stocks currently trade at a 2-year forward P/E of 4x"

1. Global oil stocks. "The world has kept itself supplied with fuel through six months of disruption by drawing on the oil it had already stored, and the scale of that drawdown has no parallel in the available record."

2. Seasonality. "Market weakness has been modest and seasonally normal, and stocks are now entering the historically favorable Sweet Spot of the Four-Year Cycle, extending from Q4 of the midterm year through Q2 of the pre-election year."

3. Defensives vs. SPX. "Consumer staples and utilities are two of the most defensive areas of the stock market ... When investors get scared, they often hide in these groups. Nobody's hiding there right now."

4. Memory valuation. "Memory stocks currently trade at a 2-year forward P/E of 4x"

5. Forecasting AI. "Stuff is happening quite fast. When asked in September 2025, the best superforecasters put the chance of AI resolving a Millennium Problem by September 2026 at 1.7% and (the more optimistic) industry expert put the chance at 4.6%. They also greatly underestimated AI Lab revenue."

ICYMI