"AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history"

1. Flash PMIs. "US business continues to boom, with output growing at the fastest rate for over five years in September ... To put the growth surge in context, barring the spike in demand following the opening up of the economy after the COVID-19 lockdowns, the latest improvement in business activity is the greatest recorded since early 2015."

2. Diesel cracks. "Diesel is an intermediate input embedded in the delivered cost of nearly every physical good ... That means the rise in diesel prices does not stay in the energy line of the CPI but migrates with a lag into core goods and services, which is exactly the kind of pass-through the Fed cannot dismiss as transitory."

3. Tech vs. non-Tech fund flows. Investors have "added $22 billion into technology-focused US exchange-traded funds this quarter, compared with $4.6 billion into the rest of the market"

4. Compute costs. "AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That's 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity."

5. GPU rental rates vs. cloud revenues. "B200 rental rates up 30% YTD. Hyperscaler cloud revenues tracking along. Remember: GPU rental rates and token prices were supposed to fall over time. The demand metrics this year have beaten all informed expectations."

ICYMI