"Mag 7 hyperscalers are trading at their lowest forward P/E since the launch of ChatGPT"

1. Recession odds. "Goldman Sachs Research reduced its estimate of US recession risk for the next 12 months from 25% to the long-term norm of 15%. This is below our economists' estimate of 20% on the eve of the war."

2. Hormuz traffic. "Tanker traffic through Hormuz is recovering, but remains well below pre-collapse levels ... Activity has clearly moved off the lows seen from late-February through early June, but the rebound is still modest versus the 50-80 tanker-crossing range seen earlier in the year."

3. USD Bull/Bear Indicator. "More hawkish Fed rhetoric recently and the widening of 2y rate differentials have lifted our Dollar Bull/Bear Indicator out of negative territory (previously it had been exceptionally bearish)."

4. Hyperscaler valuation. "Mag 7 hyperscalers are trading at their lowest forward P/E since the launch of ChatGPT (and at a discount to the S&P 500)".

5. AI revenue vs. capex depreciation. AI "revenues cover the ongoing expense, not yet the cumulative bill".

ICYMI