"If any stock market is particularly at risk from rising bond yields, it is the US"

1. CPI forecasts. "August core CPI estimates from those who have shared them: The median is 0.22%. All 17 estimates (ranging from 0.16% to 0.24%) round to 0.2%. August PPI components that feed into the PCE were firm, so a consensus CPI might lead to a slightly higher August core PCE. "

2. Pump prices. "If crude oil prices (~$100/bbl on WTI) and crack spreads persist at these levels, prices at the pump for regular and diesel gasoline could surpass $4.70/gal and $6.65/gal, respectively, by the time midterm elections roll around."

3. Equity ETF flows. "The intensity of tactical ETF flows has started to calm down ... but the structural case for equity ETFs remains well in place in the second panel, that's a rolling 1-year sum approaching $1.4 trillion"

4. Enterprise value vs. future earnings. "If any stock market is particularly at risk from rising bond yields, it is the US ... [the chart] shows the percentage of each market's enterprise value that comes from future investment. The US, in red, is far higher than anyone else and well above its own historic average"

5. SaaS vs. SaaSpocalypse. Stripe's SaaS Index, a weekly same-business gauge of non-AI SaaS revenue, shows revenue growth was largely unfazed by the "SaaSpocalypse" and has actually shifted above trend.

ICYMI