"Citi's US Earnings Revisions Index has been positive for 21 straight weeks"

1. Long-term cycle composite. "The US is currently exhibiting classic mid-cycle dynamics. It's noteworthy that current conditions almost exactly mirror 1997 when the Greenspan Fed enacted a single tap-on-the-brakes rate hike."

2. NDX vs. AAII Bull Ratio. "The chart below highlights with a red dot those dates when the 20-week moving average of the AAII Bull Ratio indicator crossed above 48 for the first time in 6 months. The most recent signal occurred on September 2nd."

3. TMT vs. ex-TMT margin. "Non-tech is starting to turn up (more on that in a second), but by contrast tech profit margins stand out as being at a structural + cyclical high... and raise some questions about sustainability."

4. US earnings revisions. "Citi's US Earnings Revisions Index has been positive for 21 straight weeks ... longest stretch since September 2021"

5. Global AI revenue. "Our revenue estimate for the AI economy reached $229 billion annualized by the end of August - up 3.5x in one year. Growth is going strong. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached $140 billion last month, 3.2x the August 2025 value of $44 billion."

ICYMI