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Daily Chartbook #89
www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #89

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Nov 22, 2022
21
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Daily Chartbook #89
www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Diesel vs gasoline. "Record spread between average diesel and gasoline prices in U.S.".

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@lizannsonders

2. Natural gas prices. US natural gas prices are expected to come down in 2023 and 2024.

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

3. China. A surge in new Covid cases in China is throwing a wrench in reopening prospects.

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@hedgeye

4. GDP forecasts (I). From BofA: "We expect a mild recession in 1Q-3Q 23. With the Fed hiking to 5.0-5.25% in our forecast, history suggests a soft landing is unlikely".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

5. GDP forecasts (II). From Goldman: "The consensus calls for negative real GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 next year".

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Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

6. Jobs forecast. From Goldman: "We expect the jobs-workers gap to shrink to the 2mm threshold that we estimate is needed by the end of 2023, led by a large decline in job openings and a 1/2pp rise in the unemployment rate".

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Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

7. Inflation forecast. "Goldman Sachs expects PCE core inflation at 2.9% in December 2023".

Goldman Sachs via Isabelnet

8. No cuts. It doesn’t expect any rate cuts in 2023.

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Goldman Sachs via Daily Shot

9. Thanksgiving meals (I). "Thanksgiving Cost Index up +20.1%, highest since 1986".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

10. Thanksgiving meals (II). "A classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 is up +20% YoY".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi


11. DXY volatility. "Currency fluctuations have increased sharply on an intra-day basis".

UniCredit via TME

12. Dollar shorts. Investors increased short positions on the US dollar to the most since July 2021.

Asset managers boost bearish dollar wagers as slump in the currency deepens
Bloomberg

13. Retail retreat. "2022 has been the year of the retail implosion".

Goldman Sachs via TME

14. Bullish vs. bearish sentiment. "As things stand, sentiment is increasingly less bullish, and increasingly more bearish".

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm

15. Positioning up. Stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors (vs. the past 12 months) has moved back up to positive territory and is at its highest in a year.

Goldman Sachs via TME

16. VIPs vs. most-shorted. Hedge fund's most shorted stocks are significantly outperforming hedge fund VIP stocks. Top 50 VIP names as of June 30 here.

Goldman Sachs via TME

17. CTAs net long. "Commodity Trading Advisors purchased ~$146 Billion worth of equities over the last month and are now net long for the first time this year".

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@barchart

18. Gross leverage. "Equity L/S gross leverage has started to roll over in the last couple of days".

JPMorgan via TME

19. Recessionary or not? "Either we have fallen too much, or too little".

TS Lombard via TME

20. Earnings recessions. "Earnings recessions take time to play out".

Morgan Stanley via TME

21. Q4 EPS cuts. "Analysts have been cutting their Q4 2022 and quarterly 2023 earnings numbers every week since the start of the current quarter".

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DataTrek

22. EPS outlook. "While some analysts have cut estimates premised on lower profit margins, few have reduced sales forecasts".

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Morgan Stanley via @samro

23. Global earnings. "Leading indicators project a contraction in the global earnings growth profile in the next 12 months, well short of the consensus expectations of 4% growth".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

24. Source of sales. "Very strong relative performance for the 'international sales' basket lately".


25. Fair value. "S&P 500 has established a trading range around theoretical 'fair value'".

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@3F_research

26. Resistance levels. "The SPX must regain three cyclical bear market resistances to confirm a bullish cyclical turn".

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BofA via @lanceroberts

27. 2023 S&P price target. Goldman expects the S&P 500 to end 2023 right around current levels.

Goldman Sachs strategists see US stocks ending 2023 near current level
Bloomberg

28. Value still cheap. "Despite the strong comeback over the last two years, we find that valuation differences between value and expensive stocks are still wider than at the peak of the dot-com bubble".

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@hanauermatthias

29. Lagging VIX. "Equity put/call ratio (blue) and MOVE Index (white) recently moved to highest since March 2020 (put/call spiked to highest since 1997), but VIX (orange) has thus far been left out, not yet coming anywhere close to where it was in that period".

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@lizannsonders

30. VIX signals. And finally, “the 2 horizontal lines highlighting the 20 and 24 VIX readings have been the warning track for each of this year’s 4 bear market rallies”.

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DataTrek

Thanks for reading!

***

MONDAY BONUS: Cheat sheet. Global markets week in review.

Courtesy of @fxmacroguy (link to Substack below)

fx:macro

Brings you up to speed on the relevant macro developments: central banks, economic data, sentiment, intermarket analysis. Every weekend. For traders, investors and everyone interested in what's going on in FX and macro.
By FXMacroGuy
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