Daily Chartbook #27

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Overdue utility bills. About 1 in 6 American homes (roughly 20 million) have fallen behind on their utility bills.

2. Low interest. Open interest in oil futures has been declining rapidly and is now at the lowest level since December 2014.

3. NatGas volatility. US natural gas prices experienced record volatility (highest level in 20 years) in the first quarter of 2022.

4. US inventory levels. Updated US petroleum inventory levels after the latest EIA data.

5. MBA survey (I). Mortgage applications dropped 1.2% WoW while the refinance applications index (below) dropped to its lowest reading since 2000.

6. MBA survey (II). The mortgage purchase index shows applications down 21% YoY. The index "is now only 11% above the pandemic low".

7. Pending home sales (I). Pending sales fell by 1% (vs. -2.6% expected) in July.

8. Pending home sales (II). Sales are down 22.5% YoY.

9. Supply chain. When it comes to the supply chain, Google search trends are dominated by semiconductor-related concerns.

10. Financial conditions are improving. Financial conditions have eased considerably since June's rate hike.

11. PMI & corporate profits. An overlay of corporate profits and a composite of US PMI data (from Prometheus Research) suggests profits need to come down.

12. Q3 GDP medical nowcast. "After two quarters of contraction, US gross domestic product (GDP) is on track to recover in the third quarter, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com." By this measure, GDP will expand 1.6% in Q3. This chart pre-dates the next one.

13. Q3 GDPNow (I). Atlanta Fed's updated GDPNow model is estimating GDP growth of 1.4% for Q3 (down from 1.6%).

14. Q3 GDPNow (II). GPDNow model with contributions breakdown.

15. Capital goods. US core capital goods orders (top) rose 0.4 (vs. 0.3% expected) while orders for durable goods (bottom) was unchanged in July (vs. 0.6% expected).

16. Youth employment. In July, 55.3% of 16-24-year-olds were employed, up from 54.4% July 2021.

17. Student loan debt forgiveness. From Bloomberg: "Forgiving student loan debt will cost between $300 billion and $980 billion over 10 years, according to a new analysis, with the majority of relief going toward borrowers in the top 60% of earners."

18. Hedge fund VIPs (I). On Monday we noted that hedge funds' most commonly held stocks were underperforming. Prior to the recent crash, "VIPs have outperformed by 39 bp on average each quarter since 2001 (85 quarters)".

19. Hedge fund VIPs (II). And here are the top 50 VIP names as of June 30.

20. S&P contributors. Which sources have the most impact on S&P returns?

21. Inflation & valuations. "This chart shows the S&P 500 average forward P/E ratio under different inflation regimes".

22. Meme stocks. Google search trends for meme stocks are surging but are well off the extreme levels of past squeezes.  

23. Buybacks accelerate. From BofA: "Buybacks by corporate clients accelerated to their highest weekly level since early Jan”. The 1% buyback tax that will be imposed by the Inflation Reduction Act “could cause some pull-forward in buybacks in ‘22”.

24. Buy streak ends. After 7 consecutive weeks of buying, BofA securities clients were net sellers of stocks last week.

25. S&P volatility. "Short-term S&P 500 price volatility has been elevated for 152 days, the longest streak since the Financial Crisis".

26. Oil "disconnect". There's a disconnect between the oil market's value (green) and its representation in the energy sector (yellow).

27. Short interest is very low (I). This chart shows the median S&P 500 stock short interest as a % of market cap.

28. Short interest is very low (II). The median stock short interest is at least below-average across all sectors.

29. S&P monthly performance. Looking forward, September has historically been a poor month for returns.

30. Bears of markets past. And finally, how does the current bear market stack up against previous ones?