"By this metric, US large cap valuations do not reflect any excessive enthusiasm about the AI trade"

1. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. The NY Fed's GSCPI surged in April to the highest reading in more than 4 years, is now 1.82 standard deviations above its long-term mean (indicating elevated supply chain pressure).

2. US Treasuries. "On a total return basis, US Treasuries still haven't returned to their peak before the 2021-22 inflation spike."

3. SPX streak. "The S&P 500 is two days away from a six-week winning streak paired with the highest weekly close in the history of the index. Would be the 13th instance since 1970, and potentially the strongest six-week advance....ever. Not exactly a sign of impending volatility."

4. SPX vs. gold. "The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold prices is a time-proven measure of investor confidence in human innovation ... By this metric, US large cap valuations do not reflect any excessive enthusiasm about the AI trade, continued economic growth, or corporate profitability."

5. Chips demand. "Semiconductor names have made new highs amid continued strong demand for chips ... The macro data underpin the recent performance, with global semiconductor sales and Taiwan export orders recording unprecedented growth rates."

ICYMI