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"You run a deficit, you gotta finance it"
DC Lite #666
Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. Philadelphia manufacturing. "The August Philly Fed reading for business conditions six months from now saw its biggest monthly jump ever to hit its highest level since August 1983. This survey has been running monthly since 1968, the longest-running regional Fed survey."
2. Yields vs. current account. "Bond yields vs current account. You run a deficit, you gotta finance it."
3. Bitcoin demand. "For the first time since the October 2025 ATH, Bitcoin demand has turned positive in both spot and perpetual futures. The scale remains modest, but if this holds for another month, it would be reasonable to conclude that the bear market is over and a new bull cycle has begun."
4. Mutual fund positioning. Mutual funds did not carry heavy exposure to AI stocks as of Q2 (note NVDA underweight is "off the charts").
5. Hedge funds vs. TMT. "TMT stocks are the most net bought among all sectors so far in August, driven almost entirely by long buys."
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