"The Taylor Rule by John Taylor, who Warsh spent a lot of time with at Stanford has been updated"

1. Taylor Rule prescriptions. "The Taylor Rule by John Taylor, who Warsh spent a lot of time with at Stanford has been updated. Spoiler, it suggests that the current rate of interest rates is way too low."

2. US30Y. "Why are long rates at the highest level in 20 years? 1) Inflation, 2) Fiscal problems, 3) Hyperscaler issuance. The bottom line is that we're not going back to the 2010s, and this is good news for everyone cutting coupons in high-quality fixed income."

3. Bitcoin apathy. "Implied volatility for BTC nearing its lowest levels on record, with front end nearing 30%, which for context is roughly 1/3rd of 'hot' assets like Kospi. Meanwhile trading volume at multi year lows. Bear market apathy things."

4. Situational Awareness. "There's something for everyone as the dust is settling: AI bulls can say a massive positioning overhang has now vanished; AI bears can point to the well-earned warning that the most vicious rallies are bear market rallies."

5. Q3 EPS revisions. During July, analysts increased bottom-up EPS estimates by 0.3%. They typically reduce estimates during the first month of a quarter.

ICYMI