"The risk here for stocks is tech contagion"

1. 10Y vs. oil vs. Nasdaq. "Over the past month, the 10y has become much more correlated to the Nasdaq than oil. This is a more risky regime...If the Fed decides that it must slow AI to calm inflation, then there is no easy ‘supply side’ end to the tightening cycle."

2. VXN vs. VIX. "The risk here for stocks is tech contagion. NDX vol is spiking much more relative to SPX, as equity rotation out of tech and into other sectors has supported the S&P."

3. Semis vs. 200DMA. Semiconductors (SOX) closed below the 200DMA for the first time since Jun'25, ending the 5th-longest streak on record. Red dots show when each of the 4 longer streaks ended. See full dashboard here.

4. SPX seasonality. "Maybe, we are near the end of the world but difficult to ignore this study many are following. The S&P is 19-0 since 1950 in the six month November-Mid Election through April Pre Election Year time frame for an avg six month gain of 14.79% with worse case performance of 3.52% in 2002-03. Earnings can certainly trump seasonals, but a short at the end of October is a balsy play."

5. Global valuation. "Valuation bear market... Global equities have de-rated materially, with 12m forward P/E ratios down c.20%"

ICYMI