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- "The earnings rollover everyone keeps projecting may once again get pushed further out"
"The earnings rollover everyone keeps projecting may once again get pushed further out"
DC Lite #707
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1. Tail risk protection. "Demand for tail risk protection, as measured by SPX downside convexity (10D vs. 25D ratio), remained in the 99th percentile high, though off the extremes from a week ago."
2. Buyback blackout exit. "We estimate ~27% of the index is currently in open window, with that number almost doubling to ~50% by the end of the week."
3. SPX vs. 200DMA. "So far, the small-caps, mid-caps, transports, semiconductors, as well as many sectors have tested their 200 DMAs. We suspect SPX is next which would bring it towards 7300 at a minimum."
4. Earnings rollover. "The earnings rollover everyone keeps projecting may once again get pushed further out."
5. Compute efficiency. Anthropic now generates $2.08 for every $1 spent on compute, a 5.2x increase since Q1'25.
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