"Retail investors are still selling US single stocks, but they're not completely MIA"

1. Challenger hiring plans. "Employers announced plans to hire 16,095 workers ... It is the highest July total since 2022 ... So far this year, companies have announced plans to hire 107,500 workers, up 25% from the 86,132 plans announced through July 2025. It is the strongest January-to-July total since 2023."

2. Productivity booms. "Investors are betting on an AI productivity boom. But 'Booms' during the post-war era were when detrended real GDP, employment, & productivity were 'all' rising. Today, detrended GDP/jobs is not conducive to a productivity boom."

3. Retail activity. "Retail investors are still selling US single stocks, but they're not completely MIA. They're committed to tech, mainly via ETFs. This is a sign that the habits of retail investors may be changing. This is less about cutting exposure, and more about changing investment patterns."

4. Breakout fundamentals. "Forward price-earnings multiples are still on the high side of history, but they're now lower than they've been during three-quarters of the breakouts we've experienced in the past five years."

5. Hyperscaler FCF. "AI hyperscaler free cash flow expected to come back to life... only $MSFT FCF positive right now"

ICYMI