The following is the third in a new series of themed reports DC will be publishing regularly for paid subscribers.
The goal of these reports is to hone in on and provide a "snapshot" of a specific area of the economy/markets.
1. Employment Trends Index. “The ETI has been trending downward since hitting a peak in March 2022. While the Index is still elevated compared to its prepandemic level and the economy has continued to add jobs through February 2024, the labor market is likely to cool off, with modest job gains expected through Q3 and Q4 of 2024."
2. NFP resilience. Nonfarm payrolls point to a strong albeit modestly cooling labor market.
3. March NFP. Consensus expects the US to add another 200k jobs in March.
4. Avg. hourly earnings. Annual wage growth is decelerating but remains well above pre-pandemic levels.
5. Real avg. hourly earnings. In real terms, hourly earnings growth improved sharply from June 2022 to June 2023 but has since stalled.
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