DC Lite #97
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1. ISM Manufacturing PMI (I). March marked the first monthly expansion for US manufacturing since September 2022 with PMI rising to 50.3 (vs. 48.4 est, 47.8 prev)…
2. Gold ETF flows. "Gold rise driven by Chinese demand. Western flows remain pretty negative (other than really 1 day in Mar). If these retail investors flip from selling to buying, there could be a substantial squeeze upward, with the only new supply left from scrap."
3. Retail allocation. Retail investor allocation to equities is at the highest since April 2022. Fixed income and cash allocations are at the lowest since November 2022 and January 2022, respectively.
4. Sell-Side Indicator. "The indicator ticked up 22bp to 55.0% in March, the highest level since May 2022...but is nowhere near euphoria."
5. Mag 7 vs. bottom 493. The gap in expected NTM net income between mega-cap tech and the bottom 493 of the S&P is widening.
