DC Lite #7
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.
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1. Active listings. Active listings saw their smallest decline since July and are at the highest level of the year.
2. Dual soft landing. "Key question for markets is if we can get a soft landing in both...parts of the Fed’s dual mandate. With inflation slowing and the labor market softening, the risks are rising that both inflation and employment are weakening faster than markets currently expect."
3. Wage Tracker. The Atlanta Fed's wage tracker was unchanged at 5.2% in October. Wage growth for job-switchers also remained unchanged while growth for job-stayers declined to 4.8% from 5%.
4. Stocks vs. bonds. "When bad news is good news stock/bond correlations spike! The reason: weak economic data causes bond yields to fall & that causes stocks to rise. The S&P 500 & U.S. Aggregate Bond rolling 90 day correlation is 0.41, 2nd highest in 20 years."
5. Q3 earnings (I). "90% of aggregate earnings have been reported. Earnings came in 5.7% ahead of expectations at the start of the season, above the 3.7% pre-Covid average surprise, best in 7 quarters."
