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DC Lite #44
5 of Wednesday's best charts and insights
Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.
1. Mortgage demand. Mortgage applications jumped 9.9% WoW, the sharpest increase in a year.
2. Wage Tracker. Wage growth remained unchanged at 5.2% YoY in December. Growth was also unchanged for job-stayers (5.7%) while wages for job-switchers increased to 4.9% from 4.6%.
3. Dumb money. "Dumb Money Confidence surged to nearly 90% in late December, one of the highest levels since we began calculating the model in 1998. It has since dropped more than 10% in only a week."
4. P/E expansion. "On average, the first year of a bull market produces a 40-50% P/E-expansion as the market anticipates the earnings bottom that typically follows a few quarters after the low…we have reached that point of maximum P/E expansion, which means that it will be up to earnings to carry the load from here, potentially allowing valuations to normalize."
5. Econ surprise vs. EPS. Strong macro data suggest another upside surprise in earnings.
Thanks for reading!
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