DC Lite #42

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1. Food prices. "Global food prices continued to fall in December … drawdown from COVID peak has now extended to nearly -26%."

2. Consumer credit. Consumer borrowing rose by the most (+$23.8bn vs. $8.6bn est) in a year in November driven by the largest increase in revolving credit (+$19.1bn) since March 2022.

3. Stock-bond correlation. "The negative equity-bond relationship in a backdrop of rising bond yields and bond volatility has been a concern for investors. But with the correlation gravitating towards zero as inflation settles down (i.e. rising rates unlikely to hurt equities), the setup is getting more palatable."

4. Insiders. The Insider Transaction Ratio has surged into bearish territory.

5. CTAs vs. US equities. "Our CTA model implied that $5B in US equities was sold last week. While these numbers are far from extreme, they underscore a broader trend of reversing flows that may eventually compound, resulting in a more significant equity sell-off."

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