DC Lite #34

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1. CB Leading Index (II). "Equities were the only positive contribution to the LEI in November. Maybe it knows something. But more likely [is it] knows absolutely nothing and is running on fumes."

2. Fed funds futures. The market odds of the Fed delivering 75bps worth of cuts by June 2024 has jumped from 7.3% a month ago to 63.6% today.

3. Commodities. "Given the Fed’s apparent complacency towards inflation, we believe commodity prices are likely to break out of this range and revisit the Russian invasion highs from 2022."

4. Retail investor sentiment. AAII Bulls hit 52.9%, the highest share since April 2021.

5. Momentum (I). In years following a 20%+ calendar-year rally, the S&P has produced an average and median return of 8.9% and 11.4%, respectively.

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