DC Lite #320

1. PPI. "PPI confirms some of our suspicions after yesterday's CPI. Bonds won't like it. We estimate that core PCE will climb 0.32% MoM in February. Looking ahead to March, non-housing services should see improvement due to weaker portfolio management."

2. Retail investor sentiment (III). There have only been 2 other instances were the % of bulls was <20 for 3 consecutive weeks: Dec'88 and Apr'22.

3. Retail investor positioning. "Investors say they are pessimistic but are still invested aggressively. The AAII average equity less cash position is still 50.5% compared to an average at past market swoon lows of only 21.6%."

4. US vs. EU ETF flows. "ETF flows give a real-time indication of equity flows, and they are showing a clear outflow from US stocks and into European ones."

5. US vs. RoW: EPS growth. "The US had generated exceptionally strong earnings growth relative to other markets ever since the financial crisis."

ICYMI

• Wed 3/12 #319: "History shows that S&P 500 drawdowns are usually good buying opportunities"

• Tue 3/11 #318: "The street is as bearish crude oil as it was in March 2020 when planet earth effectively locked down"

• Mon 3/10 #317: "European stocks’ outperformance has gone a long way, but in the big scheme of things the recent move remains a blip"

• Fri 3/7 #316: "The history of Trump’s first term suggests a high pain tolerance for equity market weakness"