DC Lite #212
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1. Core PCE. "Core PCE +.13% MOM in August. To hit the Fed's Sept SEP forecast (2.6% YOY), core PCE must average .15% MOM through year end. Easy interpretation is <.15% = bullish (gives Powell the greenlight to keep easing or go faster)."
2. Excess savings. "Our back-of-the-envelope measure of excess savings increased from $400bn to $570bn. And at the current pace of rundown, excess savings now look like they will last until 2H 2025."
3. YTD fund flows. Tech funds have dominated YTD flows while outflows have been concentrated in Healthcare and Energy.
See: The Sandbox Daily
4. HFs vs. China. Hedge funds have been piling into Chinese equities.
5. SPX breadth. 82.7% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50MA, the highest since late March. 79.9% are above their 200MA, the highest since early April.
