DC Lite #164

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1. Household wealth gains. "A record-high 30% of the population has stocks worth more than $500,000, and 37% own a home worth more than $500,000 … the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income."

2. Leftover dollars. "The vibecession is because [people] have less in real terms."

See: Yes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green

3. IWM call options (I). "We think a lot of the rally is being driven by near-record exuberance in IWM call option activity, eclipsing December 2023 levels."

4. IWM call options (II). Much of that activity is being driven by retail investors.

5. Q2 EPS surprise. "On the one hand, the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is above average levels. On the other hand, the magnitude of earnings surprises is below average levels."