DC Lite #149
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1. Tightening impact. "The impact of monetary tightening has been much lower than most people (including central bankers) expected two years ago ... thanks to a combination of debtors (both household and corporate) terming out their loans and rapid growth in nominal incomes."
2. Energy production vs. consumption. 2023 US energy "production exceeded consumption by 9 quads, more than at any other time in our records, which date to 1949."
3. Retail flows (I). "Daily net purchases of US-listed securities have now failed to cross above the US$1bn threshold for 45 consecutive trading days, the longest streak of the post-pandemic era."
4. Momentum exposure. "Momentum is now the most crowded factor group, where funds have shifted from a record low 14% underweight in 2022 to nearly 30% overweight today. Meanwhile, Value remains the most underweight group."
5. Performance breadth. "The current 8% share of S&P 500 index constituents returning 30% or more through June is roughly in line with the 10% historical average since 1990, implying 2024 is fairly typical of past years."
