DC Lite #14
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1. Fed cycle script. "A composite of the average Fed Cycle would cause the following ordering/timing of events: March = First cut (8 month pause), June = Recession starts, October = Market bottom, Feb 2025 = Earnings bottom."
2. Leading Economic Indicator (I). The Conference Board LEI declined in October for the 19th consecutive month. This 19-month streak was only exceeded in the 2008 recession period and 1974 recession period."
3. Crypto asset flows. Digital asset investment products have now seen 8 consecutive weeks of inflows. However, YTD inflows of $3.2bn remain well below 2021 ($10.7bn) and 2020 ($6.6bn) levels.
4. Sentiment Indicator. Equities positioning has returned to "stretched" territory.
5. Downgrades > upgrades. And finally, “downgrades to US earnings estimates have outnumbered upgrades for nine weeks in a row — the longest streak since February.”
