DC Lite #129

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1. CRE concentration vs. delinquencies. "The FDIC shows how CRE concentration risk lives in banks *under* $100 billion—but the big office losses have been have been absorbed by the banks over $100bn."

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2. Money supply. "The US Money Supply increased 0.6% over the last year, the first YoY increase since November 2022."

3. Stocks vs. oil. "Here's a (overly) simple rule stock market rule that's worked for a few yrs:  Long S&P 500 when oil is <$90 Cash when oil is >$90  Since 2021, this rule of thumb has kept all drawdowns contained and captured most upside. Oil drives inflation vibes/expectations."

4. Large-cap institutional ownership. "Overall, Big Tech remains under-owned vs. the S&P 500."

5. GDP vs. EPS. “Historically, a slowing GDP + accelerating EPS backdrop has been the best macro environment for stocks.”