DC Lite #12
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1. Jobless claims. Both initial jobless claims increased by more than expected, rising to 231k (vs. 220k est) and 1.865mn (vs. 1.847mn est). The former is a ~3-month high while the latter is the highest since late 2021.
2. Market vs. Fed. There have been "seven attempts by the market to take yields down in response to a Fed pivot in the last two years. All of the first six proved not to be pivotal."
3. WTI crude. "WTI lowest since July 7 - recession warning?"
4. Smart Money vs. Dumb Money. "The gap between US individual investors’ allocation to equities (64% OW) and FMS investors (net 2% OW) is now the narrowest since Feb’22."
5. Total returns. “On a total return basis we're almost back to all time highs.”
