DC Lite #104

5 of Wednesday's best charts and insights

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1. Tax refunds (II). "On March 31, the average refund size for lower-income households (annual income <$50K) was up nearly 9%."

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2. Equities vs. productivity. "Historically (beginning in 1965), the equity market relative to corporate net worth tends to lead 10Y productivity growth by about 5 years. This relationship fell apart once QE began. Either productivity begins to accelerate (inclined to think it will) or the Fed will need to continue propping up the market."

3. Alt inflation. Meanwhile…“inflation [is] running below Fed's 2% target on both core and headline CPI using more real-time shelter! Instead of 5.7% BLS shelter, avg of Apt List/Zillow: 1.1%."

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4. Asset managers vs. futures. "CFTC net equity future positioning has risen to a new all-time high led by S&P 500 futures."

5. Industry group earnings revisions. "Over the past 4 weeks, we've seen upward inflections in earnings revisions breadth for Energy, Materials, Telecom, and Utilities in particular. In other words, a mix of commodity cyclical and defensive areas of the market."

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