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Daily Chartbook #98

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #98

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Dec 7, 2022
16
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Daily Chartbook #98

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Renewables. "The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the whole of the past 20 years".

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IEA via @janrosenow

2. Crude oil supply. "SPR and commercial inventories have declined significantly, leading to the reduction in effective supply of US crude oil".

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@numeranalytics

3. Gas prices. "Average gasoline price in U.S. hasn't had a weekly increase since beginning of November".

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@lizannsonders

4. Crude prices. "Day two of the G7 price cap on Russia. Brent has fallen to the lowest level in a year".

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@robinbrooksiff

5. Alarming contango. Brent is "within $1 of contango [on a year-ahead basis] for 1st time since *2020*".

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@roryjohnston

6. Balance of trade. The US trade deficit widened to $78.2 billion in October as imports rose (+0.6%) while exports fell (0.7%).

Zero Hedge

7. Reshoring. "Corporate US Reshoring announcements jumped 20% in Q3 vs. Q2 — now tracking +150% vs 2019 ".

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UBS via @carlquintanilla

8. Q4 GDP (I). "GDPNow model from Atlanta Fed moved up to +3.8% (q/q ann.), an improvement from prior read of +2.8% … net exports moved up alongside smaller uptick in consumption".

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Atlanta Fed via @lizannsonders

9. Q4 GDP (II). Goldman lowered its "Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.4% (qoq ar), reflecting somewhat lower October consumption and business structures investment than we had previously assumed".

Goldman Sachs via TME

10. Goldilocks scenario. Goldman "is betting on no recession (and no decline in earnings) next year despite a continued aggressive Fed".

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Goldman Sachs via @lanceroberts


11. REIT withdrawals. "Big and small investors are queuing up to pull money out of real-estate funds, the latest sign that the surge in interest rates is threatening to upend the commercial-property sector".

WSJ

12. Yield gap. "Goldman expect yield gap will narrow modestly to 400 bp (85th percentile valuation)".

Goldman Sachs via TME

13. Chinese tech. "On October 25, Chinese tech stocks became uninvestable (again). More than half the stocks hit 52-week lows. Now, more than half of them are back above their 200-day averages".

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@sentimentrader

14. Commodities (I). "Commodity crisis fading quickly for manufacturers ... among companies surveyed by ISM, few are seeing commodities in short supply (blue) and up in price (orange)".

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@lizannsonders

15. Commodities (II). "Broad commodity price growth is declining, below the long-term average, and making a new cyclical low at -10%".

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@epbresearch

16. Miners buybacks. "After 2 decades of continuous equity dilution...The top 10 gold and silver miners are now doing record amounts of share buybacks".

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@tavicosta

17. Lumber low levels. "Lumber prices are at their lowest levels since June 2020, down 78% from the peak in May 2021".

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@charliebilello

18. Money market mutual funds & ETFs. "$2tn in cash inflows…strongest ever".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

19. Investor flows. "U.S. large-/mid-cap equity ETFs with outflows on rolling 1-month basis while fixed income funds have gained more traction ... corporate bond flows holding strong at just under 25% of past 1m of inflows".

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@lizannsonders

20. January effect. "Dec-Jan is typically the strongest two-month period for equity inflows, with Jan. the strongest month".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

21. Retail selling. "The only other time when retail has been a consecutive seller of single-names three months in a row was 4Q18, during which retail also sold ~$70B of single stocks ... Retail could sell a further $100-150B of single stocks (beyond the $70bn already sold since April)".

Morgan Stanley via TME

22. Risk on/off. Goldman's weekly sentiment indicators.

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Goldman Sachs via @wallstjesus

23. Smart vs. Dumb money. "It's almost as if buying low and selling high is what the 'smart money' tries to do. How surprising…".

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@mayhem4markets

24. Formidable resistance. "The downtrend from the beginning of the year remains in place, and in light of our team’s sharply negative outlook for earnings next year, they see risk-reward here as poor, and they recommend taking profits before the Bear returns in earnest".

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Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

25. 2023 price targets. A list of the Street's 2023 S&P 500 price targets.

Ashenden Finance

26. 2023 earnings (I). "SPX earnings in 2023 are expected to decline 20-25%, while Wall Street analysts are expecting 5% growth".

Ashenden Finance

27. 2023 earnings (II). "BofA expects earnings to be down 15% (year-over-year) by mid-2023".

BofA via Daily Shot

28. NTM P/E. "S&P 500 P/E fell from 21x to 16x, before rising to 18x".

Goldman Sachs via TME

29. Earnings downside. And finally, “Morgan Stanley still expects further downside to earnings in 2023 based on economic modeling”.

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Morgan Stanley via @lanceroberts

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #98

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