Daily Chartbook #98
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Renewables. "The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the whole of the past 20 years".
2. Crude oil supply. "SPR and commercial inventories have declined significantly, leading to the reduction in effective supply of US crude oil".
3. Gas prices. "Average gasoline price in U.S. hasn't had a weekly increase since beginning of November".
4. Crude prices. "Day two of the G7 price cap on Russia. Brent has fallen to the lowest level in a year".
5. Alarming contango. Brent is "within $1 of contango [on a year-ahead basis] for 1st time since *2020*".
6. Balance of trade. The US trade deficit widened to $78.2 billion in October as imports rose (+0.6%) while exports fell (0.7%).
7. Reshoring. "Corporate US Reshoring announcements jumped 20% in Q3 vs. Q2 — now tracking +150% vs 2019 ".
8. Q4 GDP (I). "GDPNow model from Atlanta Fed moved up to +3.8% (q/q ann.), an improvement from prior read of +2.8% … net exports moved up alongside smaller uptick in consumption".
9. Q4 GDP (II). Goldman lowered its "Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.4% (qoq ar), reflecting somewhat lower October consumption and business structures investment than we had previously assumed".
10. Goldilocks scenario. Goldman "is betting on no recession (and no decline in earnings) next year despite a continued aggressive Fed".
11. REIT withdrawals. "Big and small investors are queuing up to pull money out of real-estate funds, the latest sign that the surge in interest rates is threatening to upend the commercial-property sector".
12. Yield gap. "Goldman expect yield gap will narrow modestly to 400 bp (85th percentile valuation)".
13. Chinese tech. "On October 25, Chinese tech stocks became uninvestable (again). More than half the stocks hit 52-week lows. Now, more than half of them are back above their 200-day averages".
14. Commodities (I). "Commodity crisis fading quickly for manufacturers ... among companies surveyed by ISM, few are seeing commodities in short supply (blue) and up in price (orange)".
15. Commodities (II). "Broad commodity price growth is declining, below the long-term average, and making a new cyclical low at -10%".
16. Miners buybacks. "After 2 decades of continuous equity dilution...The top 10 gold and silver miners are now doing record amounts of share buybacks".
17. Lumber low levels. "Lumber prices are at their lowest levels since June 2020, down 78% from the peak in May 2021".
18. Money market mutual funds & ETFs. "$2tn in cash inflows…strongest ever".
19. Investor flows. "U.S. large-/mid-cap equity ETFs with outflows on rolling 1-month basis while fixed income funds have gained more traction ... corporate bond flows holding strong at just under 25% of past 1m of inflows".
20. January effect. "Dec-Jan is typically the strongest two-month period for equity inflows, with Jan. the strongest month".
21. Retail selling. "The only other time when retail has been a consecutive seller of single-names three months in a row was 4Q18, during which retail also sold ~$70B of single stocks ... Retail could sell a further $100-150B of single stocks (beyond the $70bn already sold since April)".
22. Risk on/off. Goldman's weekly sentiment indicators.
23. Smart vs. Dumb money. "It's almost as if buying low and selling high is what the 'smart money' tries to do. How surprising…".
24. Formidable resistance. "The downtrend from the beginning of the year remains in place, and in light of our team’s sharply negative outlook for earnings next year, they see risk-reward here as poor, and they recommend taking profits before the Bear returns in earnest".
25. 2023 price targets. A list of the Street's 2023 S&P 500 price targets.
26. 2023 earnings (I). "SPX earnings in 2023 are expected to decline 20-25%, while Wall Street analysts are expecting 5% growth".
27. 2023 earnings (II). "BofA expects earnings to be down 15% (year-over-year) by mid-2023".
28. NTM P/E. "S&P 500 P/E fell from 21x to 16x, before rising to 18x".
29. Earnings downside. And finally, “Morgan Stanley still expects further downside to earnings in 2023 based on economic modeling”.
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