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Daily Chartbook #96

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #96

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Dec 3, 2022
15
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Daily Chartbook #96

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Food prices. "Global food prices fell for an eighth month in November".

UN index eased slightly in November
Bloomberg

2. Payrolls (I). "Hotter November nonfarm payrolls, +263k vs. +200k est. & +284k in prior month".

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@lizannsonders

3. Payrolls (II). One-month change by sector.

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@m_mcdonough

4. Average hourly earnings. "Problem for Fed? November average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% est. & +0.5% in prior month (rev up from +0.4%) … strongest gain since January".

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@lizannsonders

5. Wage growth. Atlanta Fed's year-over-year wage tracker appears to have peaked.

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

6. Unemployment rate (I). "The US Unemployment Rate held at 3.7% in November, 0.2% higher than the September reading (3.5%) which was back to pre-pandemic levels and the lowest rate we've seen since 1969".

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@charliebilello

7. Unemployment rate (II). "Despite the strong payrolls number, prime-age employment rate continues to tick down, at 79.7% in November".

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@nick_bunker

8. Unemployment rate (III). "If you were ever curious about how the various US unemployment rates (U-3, U-6, etc...) work, here is a chart".

Image
@m_mcdonough

9. Participation rates (I). "Labor force participation rate continues to dip, down to 62.1% in November vs. 62.3% est. & 62.2% prior".

Image
@lizannsonders

10. Participation rates (II). "Unfortunate move down in prime-age labor force participation rate".

Image
@lizannsonders


11. Overblown tech layoffs. "Nearly a third of the discussion about “Job Cuts” from US company earnings calls are stemming from the technology sector, which doesn’t employ that many people".

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@m_mcdonough

12. Surveys gap (I). There remains a gap between the Established Survey and the Household Survey.

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@dimartinobooth

13. Surveys gap (II). "Record divergence between the establishment data (left) and the household data (right)".

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@epbresearch

14. Peak inflation? "Even as they edge down, consumer price readings will remain way above the comfort zone for central banks, necessitating further tightening even as recession risks loom". 

Bloomberg

15. Terminal rate. "Rate bets are reloading after the jobs print. Terminal rate from 4.84% to 4.95%. Remains a long way from the peak of 5.22%".

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@ericwallerstein

16. Commodities slip. "While November saw a synchronized move higher in risky assets, commodities were a notable exception, with broad-based S&P GSCI Total Return Index slipping 2%".

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@lizannsonders

17. But precious metals rally. "Precious Metals have been an exception to commodities downtrend, with Silver +14% and Gold +7% in November; S&P GSCI Gold Index, aided by twin-tailwinds of weakening U.S. dollar & lower rates, is +11% from YTD low (now > 200-DMA)".

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@lizannsonders

18. US ERP. "US Equity Risk Premium at Global Financial Crisis Lows".

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Morgan Stanley via @dlacalle_ia

19. Equity outflows. Equities saw $18 billion in outflows in the week ending November 30 (Wednesday).

EPFR via TME

20. Utilities inflows. "Largest inflow to utilities since Jan’22".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

21. Chasers. "Lot of FOMO during the last squeeze. Nobody can explain why they aren't long enough as year end approaches".

JPMorgan via TME

22. Hedge fund positioning. "Equity long/short hedge funds saw gross spiking to 93%-tile (12m). Have not seen that in a while. Net 'cautious' at 37%-tile".

Goldman Sachs via TME

23. NAAIM exposure. The exposure index for active managers moved up 64.4 from 60.3 the previous week.

NAAIM

24. Seasonality. "Jan is the strongest month in yr 3 of presidential cycle, where we historically have seen up 83% of the time, averaging +3.4%".

BofA via TME

25. S&P 2023. Aggregate predictions for the S&P next year are negative for the first time since 1999.

For the first time in decades, Wall Street strategists see a down year for stocks
Bloomberg

26. Growth vs. Value. "Worst year for growth vs value since 2000".

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

27. Valuations matter. "Valuations matter for forward returns. P/Es explain roughly 83% of subsequent 10-year annualized total #returns for the S&P 500 since 1990. Current P/E levels, suggest average annual returns in the mid- to high-single-digit range over the next 10 years.".

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BofA via @lanceroberts

28. EPS estimates (I). "Nine of the 11 sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q4 2022 from September 30 to November 30, led by the Materials (-21.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-12.2%), and Communication Services (-11.4%)".

03-sp-500-sector-level-change-in-q4-2022-eps-september-30-november-30
Fact Set

29. EPS estimates (II). Similarly, "nine sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2023 from September 30 to November 30, led by the Communication Services (-9.4%), Materials (-8.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (-6.8%)".

05-sp-500-change-in-sector-level-calendar-year-2023-eps-september-30-november-30
Fact Set

30. EPS estimates (III). And finally, “the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first two months of the fourth quarter was larger than the 5-year average, the 10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average”.

01-change-in-sp-500-quarterly-eps-first-2-months-of-quarter
Fact Set

Have a great weekend!

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Daily Chartbook #96

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
Colin Shen,CFA
Dec 3, 2022Liked by Daily Chartbook

Jan is the strongest month in yr 3 of presidential cycle, where we historically have seen up 85% of the time, averaging +3.4%,should be “83% of the time goes up”

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