Daily Chartbook #95
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Challenger job cuts. "Challenger Job Cuts exploded higher, jumping 416.5% YoY (up 127% in November)".
2. Jobless claims. "Initial claims declined -16,000 from last week’s 3 month high to 225,000. But the 4 week average climbed 1,750 to 228,750, the highest level since January 22 of this year. Continuing claims rose 57,000 to 1.608 million, the highest since February 26".
3. Personal income & spending. "Americans' income and spending were both expected to rise once again in October and they did with incomes rising 0.8% MoM (double expectations) - the biggest jump since Oct 2021. Spending also accelerated, rising 0.8% MoM (as expected)".
4. Spending categories. "US consumers spent more freely in October".
5. Savings rate. "Americans' savings rate plunged to just 2.3% of disposable income - the lowest since July 2005".
6. Excess savings dwindling (I). "Consumers have mostly exhausted post-Covid excess savings and for the first time are getting hit by a broadening negative wealth effect from all assets simultaneously (e.g., housing, bonds, equities, alternative/private investments, crypto)".
7. Excess savings dwindling (II). "People are still running down their .. pandemic savings, and have about $1.15 trillion left. .. Looking into next year however, we expect spending growth to slow .. people will be less willing to run down savings in the face of a deteriorating labor market".
8. Excess savings dwindling (III). "We estimate households still have just over $1 trillion in accumulated savings through October, which is equivalent to about 6% of annual consumer spending (chart). That translates to less than a year's worth of excess capital remaining".
9. PCE (I). Headline and core PCI increased by 0.3% and 0.2% in October.
10. PCE (II). Month-over-month change in the top 5 subcomponent contributors.
11. PCE (III). Year-over-year change in with top 5 subcomponent contributors.
12. PCE (IV). "In 2021 and early 2022, inflation was mostly about goods: first durable goods, then oil. But it's now services that are driving inflation".
13. ISM Manufacturing PMI (I). The ISM Manufacturing index fell into contractionary territory, dropping to 49 from 50.2 (49.8 expected).
14. ISM Manufacturing PMI (II). New orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
15. ISM Manufacturing PMI (III). Customers' inventories, prices, backlog of orders, new export orders, and imports.
16. Catalyst dollar. "The catalyst has been the US Dollar. the catalyst continues to be the US Dollar. You don't have to like it".
17. One trade. "Basically every single asset class in the world reversed in November".
18. Global equities sale. "Nearly every market currently trades at or below median historical valuations".
19. Forward P/E. "S&P 500 NTM P/E has fallen from 21x to 17x YTD. Goldman expects the P/E multiple will end 2023 unchanged at 17x (74th percentile)".
20. Sales growth. "Estimated revenue growth for S&P 500 has come down for next few quarters (including 4Q22) after 3Q22’s stronger-than-expected increase".
21. S&P 2023 price target. "JPMorgan expects a pivot in the Fed’s hawkish policy to fuel a stock recovery in the second half of next year. Their target of 4,200 for end-2023 leaves an upside of about 3% from here on".
22. S&P 2023 EPS targets. "We are reducing our .. 2023 S&P 500 EPS of $225 to $205 .. on weaker demand and pricing power, further margin compression, and lower buyback activity. .. in 1H23 we expect S&P 500 to re-test this year’s lows as the Fed overtightens into weaker fundamentals".
23. EPS revisions. “Forever bullish analysts still have 2% EPS growth for 2023...This number is actually close to 5% if you ex out Energy. One could argue that the real surprise here would be if we beat”.
24. Par for the course. The "current SPX drawdown is par with non-recessionary bear markets".
25. Sell side indicator. "Sell Side Indicator rose 56bps to 53.3% in November as the S&P 500 gained for a second consecutive month. It is now 1.8ppt away from a ‘Buy’ signal".
26. Seasonality (I). "Only once in history was this the worst month of the year for stocks (2018)".
27. Seasonality (II). "Stocks are going up in price exactly where they historically go up in price".
28. Profitable VIX strategy. Buying SPX when VIX closes above 30 and selling when it closes below 20 would have yielded a 29.7% return through November 2022.
Thanks for reading!