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Daily Chartbook #94
www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #94

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Dec 1, 2022
17
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Daily Chartbook #94
www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. US petroleum inventory monitor. "BIG week for US commercial petroleum stocks, which fell by 8.8 MMbbl last week...the largest weekly crude draw since July 2020...was partially offset by rising product stocks (+2.8 gasoline, +3.5 diesel)".

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@roryjohnston

2. Pending home sales (I). Pending sales fell for the 5th consecutive month, dropping 4.6% in October (vs. -5% expected) leaving YoY sales down 37% (largest annual drop ever).

Zero Hedge

3. Pending home sales (II). "Absent the COVID collapse, this is the weakest level for the Pending Home Sales Index since the nadir in June 2010".

Zero Hedge

4. Rent prices. "US Rents fell 1% in November, the 3rd straight monthly decline. The year-over-year % increase has now moved down for 12 consecutive months after peaking at 18.1% last November. At 4.6%, this is the smallest YoY increase since April 2021".

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@charliebilello

5. Affordability (or lack thereof). "The median American household would need to spend 46.3% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home in the US, the highest % on record with data going back to 2006".

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@charliebilello

6. Global debt. "The total debt owed by households, businesses and governments stands at $290 trillion, up by more than a third from a decade ago: IIF. This presents a big problem in a new high-rate era as this debt comes due and becomes much more expensive to roll over".

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Bloomberg via @lisaabramowicz1

7. Coincident indexes. "The number of states with increasing activity continues to fall".

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Isabelnet via @lanceroberts

8. Easing conditions (I). "Goldman Sachs says the easing in financial conditions over the last three weeks is worth 0.4-0.5 pp of GDP in 2023".

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@nicktimiraos

9. Easing conditions (II). The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) edged down to –0.27 in the week ending November 25, suggesting financial conditions loosened again".

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@chicagofed

10. Balance of trade. "October goods trade deficit moved higher to $99 billion vs. $90.6 billion est. & $91.9 billion in prior month (rev from $92.2 billion)".

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@lizannsonders

11. Inventories. "October wholesale inventories (blue) +0.8% m/m vs. +0.5% est. & +0.6% prior … retail inventories (orange) -0.2% vs. +0.5% est. & -0.1% prior (rev down from +0.4%)".

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@lizannsonders

12. Q3 GDP (I). GDP for Q3  was revised up to 2.9% from the initial estimate of 2.6%.

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@gregdaco

13. Q3 GDP (II). "If you only focus on the blue bars (and exclude the inventory swings), the picture is much less encouraging than GDP would indicate".

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@gregdaco

14. Corporate profits tick down. "After-tax profits as a share of gross value added for non-financial corporations, a measure of aggregate profit margins, shrank in the third quarter to 14.9% from 16.2% in the second quarter".

Margins for nonfinancial corporate business slip in third quarter
Bloomberg

15. Chicago PMI. Chicago business barometer experienced a sharp unexpected drop in November, falling to 37.2 (lowest since May 2020). Estimates called for a moderate increase.

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@mni_indicators

16. ADP employment change (I). Just 127k jobs were created in November, well below the 200k expected and the lowest amount since January 2021.

Zero Hedge

17. ADP employment change (II). "100k mfg lobs lost last month & almost a quarter-million leisure & hospitality jobs added. We're not producers, we're a fast food nation".

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@williedelwiche

18. JOLTs (I). "There were 10.3 million job openings at the end of October, down from 10.7 million in September and a peak of close to 12 million early this year. Still very high by historical standards, but now clearly coming down".

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@nick_bunker

19. JOLTs (II). "The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers ticked down to 1.7 from 1.9 in September, continuing its moderation in 2022. But it's still very elevated from pre-pandemic level".

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@bencasselman

20. JOLTs (III). "Layoff rates across broad industry groups are below their Feb 2020 level with one exception: Information, the one that contains many tech companies".

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@nick_bunker

21. Broad inversions. "Over 80% of the Treasury curve is now inverted".

Macrobond via The Daily Shot

22. Global stocks & bonds. “The 60-day correlation between the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index and the MSCI All Country World Index of stocks climbed to the highest level since 2012”.

Tickers display stock prices after a listing ceremony of PT Global Digital Niaga, the owner of Indonesia’s e-commerce group Blibli, at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. Global Digital Niaga, backed by Djarum Group, also owns an online travel business and supermarket chains. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg
Bloomberg

23. Junk exodus. "Junk bond funds have drawn inflows for 5 straight weeks--adding  $13.47 billion and making it the largest sustained run of inflows this year by far".

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@gunjanjs

24. Margin debt. "Margin debt printed another new low, despite the equities squeeze in October".

BofA via TME

25. Dow vs. S&P. "We are in very unusual territory, with the Dow outperforming the S&P by over 2 standard deviations. The only other time this has happened in the last +2 decades was during the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2001".

DataTrek via TME

26. Technology, Media, Telecom. “Hedge funds are now underweight TMT stocks by -5.2% vs. $SPX, the most [underweight] level ever in the history of our [prime brokerage] data set (back to 2016).”

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Goldman Sachs via @carlquintanilla

27. Improving breadth. "A decisive push above the August high of 13.6 on the SPX would confirm a double bottom for this indicator and increase the likelihood that October did mark a cyclical low from the SPX".

BofA via TME

28. Nasdaq earnings. "Not only is earnings growth decelerating, but y/y operating earnings growth has contracted for two-straight quarters. Only 59% of NASDAQ listed companies beat estimates".

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@ndr_research

29. Overcomplacency? And finally, “markets are back in overoptimistic mode according to NDR”.

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Ned Davis Research via @dlacalle_ia

Thanks for reading!

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