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Daily Chartbook #91
www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #91

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Nov 24, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #91
www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. US petroleum inventory monitor. "US total commercial petroleum inventories rose 3.3 MMbbl last week as refined product builds overwhelmed a 3.7 MMbbl draw in crude stocks. Gasoline built by 3.1 MMbbl, distillate's built by 1.7 MMbbl—in both cases, the largest road fuels stock build in months".

Image
@roryjohnston

2. Mortgage rates cool. "US mortgage rates retreated sharply for a second week, hitting a two-month low".

Two-week decline in 30-year fixed rate is largest since 2008
Bloomberg

3. New home sales (I). Sales of new homes jumped unexpectedly, rising 7.5% in October.

Zero Hedge

4. New home sales (II). "The jump in new-home sales 'is impossible to square with the collapse in mortgage demand; current prices can’t be sustained."

Image
@capeconus via @carlquintanilla

5. Median prices. "The median new home price just hit a record $493,000, up 8.2% M/M from $455,700 in Sept, and up from $427,300 a year ago".

Image
@zerohedge

6. Global freight. "Global shipping rates still in free-fall ... only route not participating in drop is from Rotterdam to New York".

Image
@lizannsonders

7. Fed balance sheet. Over the last decade, the "US central bank has purchased 26 percent of the Treasury’s net issuance of public debt ($14.7 trillion) over this period".

image
DataTrek

8. Initial jobless claims (I). Jobless claims jumped to 240k last week (highest since August), well above expectations of 225k. Continuing claims rose above expectations as well to the highest since March 2022.

Zero Hedge

9. Initial jobless claims (II). Claims by state.

Zero Hedge

10. Unemployment expectations. "Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, consumer attitudes have also been weighed down by rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations".

Image
U Mich via @samro


11. Consumer sentiment. "The final headline sentiment print for November rose from the flash print (56.8 vs 54.7) and was better than expected as 'expectations' rose significantly from the flash print. The headline (and the two sub-indices) did all drop however on the month with current conditions tumbling from 65.6 to 58.8".

Zero Hedge

12. Inflation expectations (I). University of Michigan inflation expectations for the medium term remained unchanged (3%) while short-term expectations fell to 5.1% from 4.9%.

Zero Hedge

13. Inflation expectations (II). A mix of indicators.

Image
@zerohedge

14. Buying conditions. "Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% to its September level on the basis of high interest rates and continued high prices".

Zero Hedge

15. Durable goods and shipment. "New orders rose by 1.0% in October, while core orders, which exclude transportation and defense, rose by 0.8%. Orders for capital goods, a proxy for future business investment, rose by 0.7% on the month".

Durable goods
RSM

16. S&P Global Flash Composite PMI. "Demand weakness weighs further on private sector business activity in November".

Image
S&P Global

17. S&P Global Flash Services/Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing and services both fell below expectations.

Zero Hedge

18. PMI vs. GDP. "The US Composite PMI was even weaker than expected in November and implies a recession is likely".

Image
@macro_daily

19. New orders vs. EPS. "Global manufacturing PMI new orders tend to lead world EPS growth by 12 months".

Isabelnet

20. Global earnings. "Global earnings revision ratio: 30-month low".

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

21. Weakening dollar. "After five straight quarterly gains, U.S. dollar is having its worst quarter thus far since 2Q20".

Image
@lizannsonders

22. Global breadth & USD. "60% of world markets are above their 200-day average (priced in local currencies). That's the highest since February. The US is in the other 40%".

Image
@williedelwiche

23. Earnings recessions. "If there is NO recession, then the market may be close to a bottom as earnings have likely declined enough. However, if a recession sets in, there is more work to be done".

Image
@lanceroberts

24. Equity put activity. "CBOE equity put activity at highest level in a decade yesterday".

Image
@williedelwiche

25. Depressed exposure. "Chart shows that there are still a lot of strategies running "depressed" equity exposure".

Deutsche Bank via TME

26. Mutual fund performance. "Driven by exceptional stock picking and high cash allocations, mutual funds are on track for their best year relative to the major indices since 2007".

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

27. All time high buybacks. "Buyback authorizations are tracking above the record level of 2021".

Goldman Sachs via TME

28. Resources flows. Energy and materials have seen their largest inflows in 23 weeks.

BofA via Isabelnet

29. Positive flows. And finally, “net equity inflows have surged over the last 4 weeks as buybacks kick in and investors chase the rally”.

Image
BofA via @lanceroberts

Happy Thanksgiving!

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Daily Chartbook #91
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2 Comments
Point-Blank-Trading
Writes Point-Blank-Trading’s Newsletter
Nov 26, 2022Liked by Daily Chartbook

Excelente job my friend

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Gilou
Nov 24, 2022

It seems graph #4 (New home sales (II)) and graph #5 (Median prices) contradict each other regarding Median New Home Sales price.

The first one displays a decrease (6-mth avg YoY) while the latter displays clearly an uptrend for that period.

I assume that both graphs display data for the entire US market.

Not sure where the inconsistency is coming from...

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