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Daily Chartbook #85
www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #85

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Nov 16, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #85
www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Ocean freight. "Ocean container rates from China to US West Coast are now over 20% lower than this time vs. 2018".

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@lukefalasca

2. Tech layoffs. "Tech Layoffs Are Not a Sign of an Impending Recession .. the unemployment rate would rise by less than 0.3pp even in the inconceivable event that all workers employed in the ‘internet publishing, broadcasting and web search portal’ industry are immediately laid off".

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Goldman Sachs via @carlquintanilla

3. Slow growth, high inflation. Among global fund managers (FMS investors) "stagflation is the consensus view".

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BofA via @carlquintanilla

4. Tail risks. "Inflation staying high the top tail risk, debt deflation the contrarian risk".

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BofA via @samro

5. Household balance sheets. Household debt rose to $16.51 trillion on higher mortgages and credit card balances.

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NY Fed via @samro

6. Record credit card balance growth. "The 15% year-over-year increase in credit card balances represents the largest in more than 20 years".

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NY Fed via @samro

7. Gloomy outlook. "77% [of respondents to BofA’s Global Fund Manager Survey] saying a recession is likely over the next 12 months, the most since the COVID high in Apr’20".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

8. Gloomy outlook (II). While a majority of respondents do not expect a stronger economy, S&P YoY returns have decoupled from this bearish sentiment.

BofA via TME

9. Record monetary risk. "Net 91% of FMS [fund manager survey] investors view monetary risk as above normal, the highest on record".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

10. Empire State (I). "Big improvement for November Empire Manufacturing, up to +4.5 vs. -6.0 est. & -9.1 prior … however, new orders fell into contraction, prices moved higher, and outlook soured … inventories rose alongside shipments, employment, and workweek".

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@lizannsonders


11. Empire State (II). "Empire manufacturing future new orders in recession territory".

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@lvieweconomics

12. Producer prices (I). Both PPI and core PPI came in lower than expected in October, at 0.2% (vs. 0.4% expected) and 0% (vs. 0.3% expected), respectively.

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@lizannsonders

13. Producer prices (II). PPI and core PPI MoM change with contributions.

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@m_mcdonough

14. Producer prices (III). MoM change with top 5 subcomponents.

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@m_mcdonough

15. Producer prices (IV). Year-over-year, both PPI and CPI prints were lower than expectations, at 8% (vs. 8.3% expected) and 6.7% (vs. 7.2% expected), respectively.

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@gregdaco

16. Fed terminal rate. Here are market expectations for the Fed terminal rate shortly after the PPI print.

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@m_mcdonough

17. Monetary policy vs. S&P. "Monetary conditions index (inverted) suggests there is still downside in the market for now".

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@lanceroberts

18. Dollar effect. Removing currency factors, "Half of ACWI markets are above their 200-day averages but the US is not among them".

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@allstarcharts via @williedelwiche

19. Overvalued DXY. "Net 72% of FMS investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, the most on record".

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BofA via @callum_thomas

20. ETF shorts. "Short exposure against ETFs fell dramatically to the lowest levels in 2022 recently".

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@mayhem4markets

21. Risk-neutral. "Coming into this week our Risk Indicator was at its highest level since February. It's not (yet) in positive territory, but is higher than it got during the rallies off of the March & June lows and still improving".

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@williedelwiche

22. Risk off. FMS investors say they are very much not taking on higher risk than normal.

BofA via TME

23. Corporate spreads. "US IG and HY bond spreads have been holding in well in 2H 2022, sharing the equity market’s belief in stable future earnings".

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@datatrekmb

24. Sector flows. "Last week, during which the S&P 500 was +5.9%, clients were net buyers of US equities (+$3.4B) after two weeks of selling".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

25. Investor flows. "Flows moving away from U.S. government bond funds (peak ~month ago was their commanding 75% of all inflows on rolling 30-day basis) and towards equity, muni, and corporate bond funds ".

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@lizannsonders

26. FMS investor positioning (I). "Fund managers are heavily overweight defensive assets, and underweight cyclical/risk-on assets".

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BofA via @callum_thomas

27. FMS investor positioning (II). FMS investors are most net underweight (19%) tech since August 2006.

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BofA via @callum_thomas

28. FMS investor positioning (III). "BofA FMS investors kept cash levels high in November".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

29. FMS investor positioning (IV). Managers are overweight cash and alternative investments and underweight equities and bonds.

relates to Bull Markets Are Back in Surprise Turnaround for Stock Investors
Bloomberg

30. Vulnerable sectors. And finally, “which sectors are most vulnerable to earnings revisions?”

Citi via Daily Shot

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #85
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2 Comments
Brant Hammer
Writes Capital Notes
Nov 16, 2022Liked by Daily Chartbook

As usual, I really appreciate the work.

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