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Daily Chartbook #84
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Daily Chartbook #84

Catch up on the day in 26 charts

Daily Chartbook
Nov 15, 2022
19
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Daily Chartbook #84
www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Homebuyer outlook (I). "Worst home buying conditions in history".

Image
Bloomberg via @lizannsonders

2. Homebuyer outlook (II). "Americans increasingly say they have no intention of moving in the coming year".

Americans' reported likelihood of moving to a new home lowest on record
Bloomberg

3. Labor market outlook. "We expect payroll gains to average 71k per month on average in 2023, troughing at 50k/month in the middle of the year".

Image
Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

4. Global GDP forecasts. The downside scenario for 2023 according to Bloomberg Economists forecasts would erase ~$5 trillion in global output.

Bloomberg

5. Surprise. "Worth noting that Citi Inflation Surprise Index for U.S. has been moving up since August".

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@lizannsonders

6. Inflation forecast. "We forecast inflation to remain uncomfortably high for a while; hiking for longer could become the Fed's path of least resistance".

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Goldman Sachs via @wallstjesus

7. Inflation expectations rise. One-, three-, and five-year expectations increased to 5.9% (from 5.4%), 3.1% (from 2.9%), and 2.4% (from 2.2%), respectively.

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NY Fed via @samro

8. Recession not priced in. "Jefferies notes that a recession is not yet priced in, citing only 7% EPS cuts this far vs. 37% EPS cuts in the last three recessions".

Jeffries via TME

9. Light positioning. Goldman's Sentiment (read: positioning) Indicator moved back down into negative territory.

Goldman Sachs via TME

10. Energy inflows. Energy funds have seen 5 consecutive weeks of inflows.

BofA via Isabelnet


11. Hedge fund energy activity. "Energy was the most net bought sector among HFs over the prior two weeks (10/24-11/4)...However, HF flows again turned negative this past week".

Morgan Stanley via TME

12. Commodity bulls. "We are in the early innings of a new commodity secular bull market…Historically, equities enter secular bear markets during commodity bulls".

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@warrenpies

13. Copper stagnation. "Goldman currently sees a period of significant stagnation in copper supply growth".

Goldman Sachs via TME

14. Silver vs. commodities. "Silver has so much catch up to do".

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@tavicosta

15. Yield curve inversions. "100% of all US (Treasury) yield curves are now inverted as of Friday. The last time this happened was in 1980".

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@lvieweconomics

16. Nasdaq YoY drawdowns. Current levels of change in the Nasdaq YoY suggest a sharp reversal ahead.

Ian Harnett via TME

17. Call options surge (I). "Total call options volume hit the highest level of the year on Friday--and one of the highest levels since the Jan 21 meme mania".

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@gunjanjs

18. Call options surge (II). "Over the last 2 days, net call option volumes swung from extreme negative to positive, with the absolute change in the top percentile over the last 25 years".

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Deutsche Bank via @gunjanjs

19. Panic/Euphoria. "CITI indicator show not even the smallest hint of neither panic nor euphoria".

Citigroup via TME

20. The Euphoriameter. But the Euphoriameter index "ticked up slightly in October off of the lowest point since 08/09. Contrarian bull signal?"

@topdowncharts (see Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm)

21. Megacap vs. S&P (I). On an enterprise value-to-sales basis, megacap valuations are still 2x that of the S&P 496.

Fact Set via TME

22. Megacap vs. S&P (II). "Mega-cap tech 2022E sales growth of 8% trails S&P 500 growth of 13%".

Goldman Sachs via TME

23. Q4 EPS estimates. Analysts now expect negative YoY EPS growth of 0.39% in Q4, down from 6% just 3 months ago.

Bloomberg

24. EPS downside (I). Mike Wilson "anticipates companies won’t be able to pass on price increases in coming quarters. While he says stocks may continue to rise in the next few weeks, the market’s ultimate bottom won’t come until 2023".

Morgan Stanley's Wilson sees more earnings downgrades ahead
Bloomberg

25. EPS downside (II). "After what's left of this current tactical rally, we see the S&P 500 discounting the '23 earnings risk sometime in Q123 via a ~3,000-3,300 price trough. We think this occurs in advance of the eventual trough in EPS".

Image
Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

26. S&P 500 price targets. And finally, "while our year end 2023 base case price target of 3,900 is roughly in line with where we're currently trading, it won't be a smooth ride. In short, we expect a bust before a boom, and it comes down to earnings".

Image
Morgan Stanley via @samro

Thanks for reading!

***

MONDAY BONUS: Cheat sheet. Global markets week in review.

Courtesy of @fxmacroguy (link to Substack below

fx:macro

Brings you up to speed on the relevant macro developments: central banks, economic data, sentiment, intermarket analysis. Every weekend. For traders, investors and everyone interested in what's going on in FX and macro.
By FXMacroGuy
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