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Daily Chartbook #83
www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #83

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Nov 12, 2022
16
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Daily Chartbook #83
www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. "Peak" season. "Tender rejection rates are on the verge of dropping below 4%, currently at 4.1%. Tender rejections normally increase this time of year due to peak season surges and drivers staying at home for the holidays".

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@freightalley

2. Big ease. "Yesterday's US FCI easing was the third-largest on record".

Goldman Sachs via TME

3. Sticky services inflation. BofA expects "CPI inflation to become increasingly driven by services next in 2023".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

4. Pivot timeframe. "The median length of time between the peak in inflation and the first rate cut is 22 weeks, according to US hiking cycles going back to 1972".

Simon White via Zero Hedge

5. University of Michigan (I). Consumer sentiment declined to 54.7 in November from 59.9. Consumer views on current economic conditions also dropped, as did their expectations.

Zero Hedge

6. University of Michigan (II). Consumer expectations for 1-year and 5-10-year inflation ticked up to 3.0% (from 2.9%) and 5.1% (from 5.0%), respectively.

Zero Hedge

7. Inflation expectations matrix. Gauges for 1-year inflation read between 2.5-3.0%.

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@zerohedge

8. Treasuries purchases pop. "The October CPI number has prompted more buying of Treasuries than did the 9/11 terrorist attacks, or the Greenspan Fed’s surprising inter-meeting rate cut in response to the Long-Term Capital Management meltdown in 1998".

Isabelle Lee

9. Pivot positioning. The drop in yields suggest optimism over a slowdown in interest rate hikes.

Yields drop most in more than a decade on hopes Fed hikes to end
Bloomberg

10. High-yield bond inflows. “JNK 0.00 + HYG 0.00 took in $2.2b yesterday, biggest combined inflow ever”.

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@kgreifeld


11. Strong inflows. Cumulative inflows into US equities remain strong.

EPFR via TME

12. Momentum halts (I). This chart shows "just how dramatically growth diverged from momentum and value once the CPI numbers appeared".

relates to The Peak Looks In, But Markets Risk Overdoing It
Bernstein via Isabelle Lee

13. Momentum halts (II). "Bloomberg's [momentum] 'model' saw readings we have not seen since the vaccine mania day".

Bloomberg via TME

14. Rare event. "For only the 18th time since 1928, the percentage of sub-industry groups increasing more than 5% in a single session exceeded 60%".

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@deanchristians

15. Takeaway = ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. "Previous 1-day rallies in SPX of 5% or more have occurred during wild market environments. Very wide dispersion of returns over the next several days".

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@quantifiabledgs

16. Hedge fund tech positioning (I). Hedge funds are very short large cap tech and unprofitable/expensive tech.

Morgan Stanley via TME

17. Hedge fund tech positioning (II). "Hedge funds missed yesterday's entire move: according to Goldman PB hedge funds were the most U/W Info Tech stocks vs. the S&P 500 index on record".

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@zerohedge

18. Wealthy investors (I). "BofA Private Clients: $2.9tn AUM…61.3% stocks, 20% bonds, 11.7% cash; biggest inflow to cash in 8 months".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

19. Wealthy investors (II). "BofA private clients leading big charge into bonds".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

20. FANG derating. "BofA expects that the derating of Big Tech has just started and is far from over. Sees similarities to Japan '90s, internet '00s, US/EU banks '07, BRICs & resources '11".

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@schuldensuehner

21. Crypto crash (I). Bitcoin's descent from its 2021 peak rivals some of the biggest crashes in history.

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@schuldensuehner

22. Crypto crash (II). Bitcoin and other asset bubbles since the 1970s.

BofA via Daily Shot

23. Room to fall? "Based on declining earnings estimates and a fair value of around 14x, it doesn’t look like the stock market is out of the woods yet".

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@timmerfidelity

24. Top & bottom line divergence. Forward sales are declining at a faster rate than forward earnings.

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@lizannsonders

25. Trading strategies. Buying the S&P 500 when VIX closes above 30 and selling when it closes below 20 would have been a very profitable trading strategy this year.

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@charliebilello

26. Q3 GAAP. "With 91% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q3 GAAP earnings are down 8% year-over-year, the 2nd quarter in row of negative YoY growth".

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@charliebilello

27. Q3 earnings (I). "Companies that have reported positive earnings surprises for Q3 2022 have seen an average price increase of 2.4% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release," much larger than the 5-year average of 0.9% and the largest since Q3 2014.

sp500-positive-eps-surprises-avg-price-change-percentage
Fact Set

28. Q3 earnings (II). "Companies that have reported negative earnings surprises for Q3 2022 have seen an average price decrease of -3.5% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release,"which is larger than the 2.2% 5-year average.

sp500-negative-eps-surprises-avg-price-change-percentage
Fact Set

29. Q4 EPS outlook. And finally, earnings growth for Q4 is now "seen at -1.7% vs. +3.7% on Sept 30".

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Fact Set via @mikezaccardi

Have a great weekend!

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