Daily Chartbook #82
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Inflation (I). "Overall inflation as measured by CPI rose 7.7% YoY, way below the 7.9% estimate. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 6.3% YoY, below the 6.5% YoY change economists expected".
2. Inflation (II). "MoM% change with contributions & biggest individual contributors".
3. Inflation (III). YoY change in topline contributions to headline inflation.
4. Inflation (IV). YoY change in individual contributors to headline inflation.
5. Inflation (V). Shelter and rent inflation remain hot.
6. Inflation (VI). As a reminder, CPI OER (owners rent equivalent) lags rent prices by ~5 months.
7. Inflation (VII). "Strip away housing from core and CPI fell for the first time since May 2020".
8. Before and after. "Fed funds terminal rate pre and post CPI".
9. Fed funds futures. Markets are placing the probability of a 50 bps rate hike in December at 90%.
10. Wages vs. Inflation (I). "US wage growth has failed to keep pace with rising consumer prices for a record 19 consecutive months".
11. Wages vs. Inflation (II). "All of the US wage growth since the start of the borrowing/printing binge in March 2020 has been a mirage, up 14% in nominal terms but down 1% after adjusting for higher prices".
12. Jobless claims. The job market remains tight as "initial jobless claims rose slightly, by 7,000, from one week ago to 225,000. The 4 week average declined -250 to 218,750. Continuing claims also rose slightly, by 6,000, to 1,493,000".
13. Credit card interest rates. "The average interest rate on US credit card balances moved up to 16.27% in the 3rd quarter. With data going back 1994 that's the highest rate we've ever seen".
14. Positive growth. From Goldman: "In the US, we expect GDP growth to slow to 1.9% in 2022 and 1.0% in 2023, reflecting a negative impulse from tighter financial conditions. We see a 35% probability of entering a recession over the next year, although we think any recession would likely be mild".
15. Crypto: business as usual. "The over $200 billion decline in crypto market cap over the past three days ranks as the 26th worst three-day decline on record".
16. Asset class volatility. "Volatility metrics across asset classes are moving lower, but equity volatility (blue) remains more subdued relative to bonds (white) and currencies (orange)".
17. NAAIM. Active investment manager equity exposure ticked up to 54.57 (Nov 2) from 53.91 (Oct 26).
18. Computer buying (I). "The CTA crowd has been busy buying [equities]".
19. Computer buying (II). The buying does not extend to bonds (chart shows CTA exposure to US10Y Treasuries).
20. Mega cap breakdown. Mega caps tocks-to-S&P 500 ratio has broken decade-long support.
21. Negative revisions streak. A "Citigroup Inc. gauge of US earnings changes has had 23 consecutive negative prints, the longest losing streak since early 2020".
22. Financial conditions vs. multiples. "Tightening in financial conditions (orange) has been consistent with P/E compression (blue) this year".
23. Rare event. "3-sigma moves are always fun. This is only the second time ever SPX has returned more than +4%, while the VIX is under 25. The last and only other time that happened was on March 3rd, 2000".
24. Yields drop. "Biggest drop in 10-year Treasury yields since March 2020".
25. Short basket. "Most shorted stocks jump almost 11% in one of the most violent rallies ever".
26. Big Tech surges. "Nasdaq 100 jumps 7.5% in the biggest gain since March 2020 as inflation eases".
27. Worst to first. And finally, "this year’s losers were today’s winners".
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