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Daily Chartbook #81

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #81

Catch up on the day in 26 charts

Daily Chartbook
Nov 10, 2022
19
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Daily Chartbook #81

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Expensive winter. EIA now expects US natural gas prices to average $6.09 MMBtu this winter, which would be "the highest real price since winter 2009-10". 

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EIA

2. US petroleum inventory monitor. "US commercial total petroleum inventories fell by 0.8 MMbbl last week, as product draws overwhelmed a reasonably sizable 3.9 MMbbl crude build".

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@roryjohnston

3. Mortgage rates. "The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been above 7% for the last three weeks, something that hasn't been seen since 2001".

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@nicktimiraos

4. Mortgage applications. "Applications for home purchase mortgages (meaning, excluding refinances) are down 40% on the year".

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@nicktimiraos

5. Homeowner equity. "$1.3T (7.6%) in equity vanished from the market in Q3 as prices pulled back, the largest quarterly dollar decline on record, and the largest on a percentage basis since 2009".

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Black Knight via @ayeshatariq

6. Real estate prices vs. interest rates. "A very simple and yet effective chart. House prices plotted against mortgage rates".

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@macroalf

7. Deal hunters. "Most consumers are waiting for discounts before they start their holiday shopping".

TKer

8. Inventory-to-sales vs. jobs. "As retail inventory/sales ratio ex-autos (orange) has picked up considerably, companies have been shedding warehousing & storage jobs (blue), to tune of -49k since June".

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@lizannsonders

9. Chicago NFCI. "The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) edged down to –0.11 in the week ending November 4, suggesting financial conditions continued to loosen".

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@chicagofed

10. Q4 GDP. Atlanta Fed's GPNow model estimates 4.0% real GDP growth in Q4, up from 3.6% on November 3.

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@m_mcdonough


11. CPI expectations (I). "The consensus expects inflation to fall to 3% by the end of next year, but the historical pace of price declines would suggest CPI may not touch 3% until 2024".

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BofA via @lanceroberts

12. CPI expectations (II). "JPM projection is for a significant move lower in inflation from here".

JPMorgan via TME

13. CPI vs. M2. "If CPI follows M2 stock, risk-on won't hold back".

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@gameoftrades_

14. USD vs US10Y yield. "Rolling 120d correlation between U.S. dollar (blue) and 10y Treasury yield (orange) has risen to highest since August 2020".

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@lizannsonders

15. Central bank demand. "The increase in CB purchases reflects demand for a politically neutral reserve asset: In our view, this boost to CB demand primarily reflects demand for a politically neutral store of value".

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Goldman Sachs via @wallstjesus

16. CBOE CPCE. "Equity put/call ratio spiked yesterday to highest since March 2008 … magnitude surpassed March 2020 spike by narrow degree".

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@lizannsonders

17. Put skew. "Put skew has fallen significantly in 2022 as index put options have failed to provide downside protection for many institutional hedgers".

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@mayhem4markets

18. Index & ETF options. "Index and ETF options trading volumes have exceeded $1T/day, with more and more over the course of 2022".

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@mayhem4markets

19. Record ETF trading. "ETFs have traded $41 trillion dollars worth of shares in 2022, which is already an annual record with 6 weeks to go still".

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@ericbalchunas

20. Lows > highs streak. "57 days in a row of new lows > new highs. In past 2+ decades, only stretch that was longer was the 70+ day run at the end of 2008".

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@williedelwiche

21. S&P fwd P/E. "The S&P 500 is slightly cheap to its 10-year average forward PE (16.1x vs. 17.1x). This is due to cyclical sectors getting cheaper. Growthier sectors are more expensive than their historical averages".

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@datatrekmb

22. Room to fall. "Drop in S&P 500 blended forward 12m EPS not yet anywhere close to recessionary".

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@lizannsonders

23. S&P 500 vs. VIX. "The traditional inverse relationship between stocks & volatility is breaking down".

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@reutersjamie

24. Crypto disaster. Crypto markets collapsed to their lowest levels in 2 years after FTX liquidity issues temporarily give way to Binance takeover which now appears unlikely.

FTX-Binance saga leaves Bitcoin around lowest level since November 2020
Bloomberg

25. Growth vs. Value (I). "Value has just outperformed Growth by a truly anomalous amount (11.5 points, +3 standard deviations) over the last 50 days".

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DataTrek

26. Growth vs. Value (II). And finally, “value stocks have notched highest returns in 20 years”.

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #81

www.dailychartbook.com
2 Comments
Jeffrey Odolski
Nov 10, 2022Liked by Daily Chartbook

I love the charts. Truly. Thanks.

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