Daily Chartbook #79
Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Autos (I). "Manheim Used car index biggest drop since Lehman and 5th biggest drop on record".
2. Autos (II). "Used car prices are crashing…here is the Manheim Index Relationship with the CPI subcomponent for used cars & trucks".
3. Autos (III). "It hasn't been this expensive to get a new auto loan since 2010".
4. Talk of lower costs. "More executives are reporting lower materials costs than in any quarter since they started counting in 2017".
5. Market inflation implications. Markets are implying a 40% chance of inflation remaining above 3% over the next 5 years.
6. Inflation forecasts. Goldman sees core PCE & core CPI under 3% in ~12 months.
7. Growth revisions. "JPM economists' growth revisions show global data has stabilized, but soft PMI internals suggests risks are still elevated".
8. Confidence vs. unemployment. “Extreme consumer pessimism and record low unemployment”.
9. Disposable income. From Goldman: "We expect 3.5% real disposable income growth in 2023, with positive real income growth for all income groups".
10. No rush. "Bear markets tend to end after the Fed has cut rates significantly".
11. Capital calls > distributions. "Investors are sending more money into private-market funds than they are getting back".
12. Peak dollar? "All currencies that are part of the DXY basket are rising on a six-month basis. As the chart below shows, such extremes almost always mark interim peaks in the dollar".
13. Insider activity. "The Insider Transactions Ratio (officer, director or owner of 10% or more of a class of company's securities) is back in the bearish zone".
14. Puts vs. calls. Last week saw a big spike in the put/call ratio.
15. Call option volumes. Going back to 2018, "nearly all of the most-active days on record for calls tied to the S&P 500 have occurred over the past few weeks".
16. Upside tail risk. "The relative call vs put QQQ skew continues to show extreme readings. People are still hedging the upside tail!"
17. Hedging backfire. "A Cboe index that tracks a theoretical portfolio that buys both stocks within the S&P 500 and equity put options — known as the PPUT index — has fallen roughly 20 percent this year, not any better than the total return of the S&P 500".
18. Long/short ratio falls. From Goldman: "selling was particularly elevated in TMT and Consumer Discretionary, which together made up more than 80% of the notional net selling for all US single stocks [last] week".
19. Lukewarm positioning. "A poll of JPMorgan clients from last week showed that equity positioning among investors is neither super bearish nor overly bullish".
20. Treasury positioning. "The JPM survey has swung sharply this year, and now stands near its longest levels in since fall 2020".
21. Energy inflows. "Data from Morgan Stanley's PB Content group reflects an inflection in HF flows into energy over the past couple of weeks. In fact, on Tuesday, Energy ended as the most net bought sector via long adds – the greatest level of inflows all year".
22. Highs > lows. "The number of $SPX stocks making new 20-day highs is continuing to outperform those making new lows, which suggests the broader market is much stronger than the spot price suggests. This ratio ranks in the 83%ile over the past decade".
23. Safe vs. disruptive tech. "$AAPL has been outperforming $TSLA on a rolling 50-day basis since early October, a sign that investor interest in disruptive tech companies is waning in favor of “safer” alternatives".
24. Panic/Euphoria Index. "At the current level, the market just moved out of panic and implies a 90% probability of positive return over the next 12 months".
25. Not cheap yet. "Stocks are not yet 'cheap' based on valuations such as Tobin's Q or Shiller PE".
26. Buyback EPS contribution. "Buyback activity has added a full percentage point to the YoY growth rate".
27. Q3 earnings. Year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q3 excluding energy is at -6.1%.
28. Q4 earnings growth. The estimated YoY earnings growth rate for Q4 has dropped from 9.1% on June 30 to -1% today.
29. EPS cuts. And finally, "Goldman strategists lowered earnings estimates for this year to $224 from $226, for next year to $224 from $234, and for 2024 to $237 from $243. The revision implies annual growth of 7%, 0%, and 5%, respectively".
Thanks for reading!
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MONDAY BONUS: Cheat sheet. Global markets week in review.
nice!! thx!