Daily Chartbook #76
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. US petroluem inventories. Levels for crude oil, total motor gasoline, total distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel.
2. US diesel crunch. There are "less than 26 days of diesel supply".
3. Strategic Petroleum Reserves. "Biden drains Strategic midterm reserve below 400MM barrels for the first time since May 1984".
4. Plunging container demand. "Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, says container demand will drop as much as 4% this year and keep contracting in 2023".
5. Negative wealth effect. "The negative wealth effect we're seeing for households in the US is already the most pronounced in history as a percentage of GDP!"
6. Consumer health. From Goldman: "Our Consumer Health Indicator Has Edged up to Percentile 52 in the US".
7. Fading bonuses. From BofA: "Mentions of ‘signing bonuses’ are off peak from last fall when they were a huge factor in retaining and hiring staff, though mentions are still above pre-pandemic levels".
8. Household savings. From BofA: "we see some evidence that the level of median savings has been easing back recently, especially for those earning below $50,000".
9. Unemployment rates. "Unemployment rates were lower in September than a year earlier in 354 of the 389 metropolitan areas".
10. ADP employment (I). "ADP data showed an improvement in the labor market with 239k jobs added in October (vs 192k added in September) and better than the 185k addition expected".
11. ADP employment (II). Beneath the headline number, the "gain was only thanks to Leisure/Hospitality jobs (waiters/bartenders) which soared 210K, or 85% of the entire monthly increase".
12. FOMC statement. The Fed raised rates by the expected 75 bps.
13. Flow trends. "Over the last few weeks, it has been hedge funds and retail investors buying stocks as institutions were net sellers".
14. Investor flows. "Technology, passive ETF, and communications are seeing the biggest inflows as they are the most beaten up".
15. Positive equity flows. "Despite the crappy trading environment, BofA clients have been loading up on equities over the last couple of months".
16. Talk vs. action. "Behavioral sentiment has not matched extreme pessimism seen in attitudinal metrics".
17. Cash levels up. "Individual investors increased the share of cash in their portfolios to around 25%, the highest level since March 2020".
18. Cash returns. "Cash returns also don't seem too shabby this year, [especially] when you look at what's happened across stocks and bonds".
19. Puts puked. "The crowd continues buying puts (on a relative basis) at local market lows".
20. It's been a wild year. The S&P 500 "has been up or down at least 7.5% in 5 different months this year. This is the most monthly volatility we have seen since 1937".
21. Inversions. "All important yield curve measures will soon be inverted".
22. Theoretical yield tops. "No yield top yet, but this is how they tend to look".
23. Q3 earnings update. With 68% of companies reported, "3Q set to mark only the 3rd miss post-GFC. 54% of reporters (ex-Fins) had negative real sales growth. 43% beat on both sales & EPS, slightly below the historical post-Week 3 average of 45%".
24. Sell Side Indicator. According to BofA, "whenever the indicator was at current levels or lower, the subsequent 12-month returns for the US equity index were positive 94% of the time -- with median gains of 22%".
25. Bounceback. "33% drawdowns always followed by positive 1y return".
26. S&P vs equal-weight S&P. "Most stocks seem to be stabilizing under the surface. The equal weight S&P 500 is breaking out vs the S&P 500".
27. Buybacks. "Goldman Sachs expects that approx 80% of SPX will be in their open window by the end of the week".
28. Euphoriameter. And finally, the "Euphoriameter ticked up slightly off the lows in October".
Thanks for reading!