Daily Chartbook #75
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. FOMC forecast. "Goldman Sachs expected the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by 75 bps in Novemeber, 50 bps in December, and 25 bps in February & March".
2. Fed agreeableness. "Looking at terminology used among members, internal agreement has been below long-rerun average since August 2019".
3. Higher-for-longer (I). "Goldman's number 1 reason [for higher-for-longer rate hikes] is that inflation is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while".
4. Higher-for-longer (II). "Goldman's number 2 reason is that fiscal policy tightening is no longer restraining growth much".
5. JOLTs (I). Job openings surged above expectations to 10.717 million, the "second highest monthly increase of 2022 and the highest since the 511K added in March".
6. JOLTs (II). Job openings per unemployed person (white) increased but remains below 2:1. Here are the ratios by industry.
7. Aging workers. The "vast majority of the decline" in the participation rate "is due to aging".
8. Materials vs. growth. "CRB Raw Industrial Materials is one of the best real time gauges of cyclical growth activity. its now running -15% y/y which is one of the lowest readings of the last 40yrs".
9. Manufacturing slowdown. The US decline in manufacturing activity "has reached more than 1.6 standard deviations below normal," according to RSM, which places a 65% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.
10. S&P Global US manufacturing PMI. "October PMI data signaled a subdued start to the final quarter of 2022, as US manufacturers recorded a renewed and solid drop in new orders".
11. ISM manufacturing PMI (I). US manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.9 to 50.2 in October, pointing to weak sector expansion and economic growth.
12. ISM manufacturing PMI (II). "The PMI data showed the sharpest drop in new orders since May 2020" but prices paid plunged to 46.6 (first contraction in 2.5 years) suggesting inflation relief ahead.
13. ISM manufacturing PMI (III). "During the inflationary spikes in the 1970s/80s, a downturn in Prices Paid was a leading indicator of lower inflation rates to come, which was associated with US recessions in both of those periods".
14. ISM manufacturing PMI (IV). Supplier deliveries "are getting faster, usually a sign that orders are slowing down and easier to fill. This is the lowest reading since Feb 2009".
15. Earnings season (I). With 52% of the S&P reported, "71% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77% and below the 10-year average of 73%".
16. Earnings season (II). "In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 2.2% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 8.7% and below the 10-year average of 6.5%".
17. Earnings season (III). "68% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 69% but above the 10-year average of 62%".
18. Earnings season (IV). "In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 1.7% above the estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 1.9% but above the 10-year average of 1.2%".
19. NTM EPS. "Look at the cross between S&P 500 and next twelve months (NTM) estimates. Consensus estimates likely to move down further".
20. 2023 EPS. Deutsche Bank thinks 2023 earnings estimates are still way too high.
21. Forecast capitulation. "We can safely call this an analyst forecast capitulation. S&P 500 estimates now falling for the two years ahead".
22. Resistance level? Mr. Blonde expects "S&P 500 price stalls around 17.5x forward P/E, which currently equates to ~4075 (or +4%) based on consensus EPS of $233 (and falling) for 2023. Why 17.5x? Historically, valuation multiples compress as long as the Fed is hiking rates (yes even if hiking at slower pace) and rolling 2yr average acts as an area of resistance".
23. Bad backdrop. “Periods of falling NTM EPS are typically a bad backdrop for equities with average 3mo returns of -3.7% and positive returns less than 40% of the time, both significantly below average”.
24. Investor flows. Rising equity prices have driven ~45% of ETF flows over the past month into large-, mid-cap, and broad equity funds.
25. Exposure plans. "Percentage of people planning to increase equity exposure is at recent lows".
26. Pension rebalancing. "S&P 500 Index's ~8% rally in October could force pension funds to dump shares to ensure allocation limits between stocks and bonds are met".
27. Rotation. From BofA: "We have seen a shift out of cyclical sectors and into defensive sectors the last two months. But even bigger than defensive inflows have been inflows into TMT".
28. Plenty of downside. "If you believe there will be a recession, expect the markets to go even lower".
29. FOMC implied volatility. And finally, “the downside as the one-week implied volatility skew for the S&P 500 is 'in the 20th percentile for the week prior to FOMC meetings since January 2012'.”
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