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Daily Chartbook #74

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #74

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Nov 1, 2022
9
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Daily Chartbook #74

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Declining rents (I). "We estimate that the national median rent fell by 0.7 percent month-over-month in October. This is the largest monthly decline in the full history of our index, which starts in January 2017".

MoM rent growth oct22
Apartment List

2. Declining rents (II). "Asking rents down sequentially two months in a row after seasonal adjustment".

Image
@pearkes

3. Broad weakness. "Confidence, housing, and retail data are all looking weak relative to their 1-year averages".

Image
@lizannsonders

4. Resilient labor market. "Labor demand is slowing despite low and steady layoffs".

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@pantheonmacro

5. Priorities. "As prices rise people are spending more on what they need, and less on what they desire".

Image
@mayhem4markets

6. Pricing plans. "Corporate intentions to raise prices have peaked".

JPMorgan via TME

7. Inflation relief. "Some early signs of inflationary relief in the pipeline as we see the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index show price pressures are falling this month".

Image
@mayhem4markets

8. Less tight. Financial conditions have eased slightly.

Goldman Sachs via TME

9. Chicago PMI. "Another drop for Chicago PMI in October to 45.2 vs. 47 est. & 45.7 prior; prices paid & inventories rose at faster pace; new orders fall at faster pace; employment and production fell at slower pace … 5 components rose vs. prior month".

Image
@lizannsonders

10. Dallas Fed. General business activity in October for manufacturing in Texas dropped to -19.4 from -17.2. Employment moved higher but new orders, shipments, inventories, and workweek all moved lower (and either remain in or fell into contraction).

Image
@lizannsonders


11. Q1 2023 GDP. Goldman’s "1Q23 US real GDP growth rate consensus has turned negative".

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@mikezaccardi

12. DeFANG'd. Megacap tech vs. the S&P 500 (Thurs-Fri last week).

Goldman Sachs via TME

13. Monthly flows. "Inflows were large this past week, but November is when they get "serious" about deploying money into markets. According to GS we should expect around $2.5B per day".

Goldman Sachs via TME

14. Sector fund flows. "Financials and tech have been seeing inflows in recent weeks".

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

15. No chasing. Hedge funds have not chased the latest rally.

JPMorgan via TME

16. Equity positioning (I). Goldman Sachs' sentiment and positioning indicator has moved into positive territory for the first time this year after 34 consecutive negative readings (longest such streak in history).

Goldman Sachs via TME

17. Equity positioning (II). "Equity positioning is up from the most recent lows, but we are far from 'meaningfully long'."

Deutsche Bank via TME

18. Equity positioning (III). CTA "equity positioning starting to increase, but well below mid-Aug high".

JPMorgan via TME

19. Average cash. Cash holdings as a % of AUM for BofA's private clients is right around its long-term average.

Flow Show via TME

20. Global earnings downgrades. "Global earnings are revised downward. Red line is revision rate. Green is average rate. Purple bars is 3 months change in MSCI World".

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@beursanalist

21. Growth downgrades. In the US, "most of the recent earnings downgrades have been in growth stocks".

Societe Generale via Daily Shot

22. EPS beat rewards by sector. Healthcare stocks are being rewarded most on earnings beats.

FactSet via TME

23. Margins under pressure (I). After last week's earnings results, JPMorgan's "estimate for 3Q22 S&P operating margins dipped to 12% down from 12.4% a week prior and 13.3% from a year ago".

chart_of_the_week
JPMorgan

24. Margins under pressure (II). Unfilled orders and supplier delivery data point to further margin compression ahead.

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Pantheon Macro via @mayhem4markets

25. Gold streak. "Gold is poised for its longest losing streak since 1968".

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@lisaabramowicz1

26. Larve vs. small. Large-cap performance relative to small-caps is at a 1-year low.

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@mikezaccardi

27. Large vs. small (II). “The S&P 600 PE10 ratio (price vs trailing 10yr average earnings) is sitting about 10% below the average of the past 25 years, and is trading at a discount of -10% vs the S&P 100 (which compares to an long-term average premium of +5%)”.

@topdowncharts via Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm

28. Don't miss. From BofA: Earnings "misses are getting punished, underperforming the S&P 500 by 667bps the next day, the largest in history".

Image
BofA via @gunjanjs

29. Seasonality. And finally, "November historically has been a strong month for stocks. In fact, the past 10 years it has been the best for stocks and in a midterm year it has been the second best (only October was better)".

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@ryandetrick

Thanks for reading!

***

MONDAY BONUS: Cheat sheet. Global markets week in review.

Courtesy of @fxmacroguy (link to Substack below)

fx:macro

Brings you up to speed on the relevant macro developments: central banks, economic data, sentiment, intermarket analysis. Every weekend. For traders, investors and everyone interested in what's going on in FX and macro.
By FXMacroGuy
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Daily Chartbook #74

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