Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #73

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #73

Catch up on the day in 31 charts

Daily Chartbook
Oct 29, 2022
11
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #73

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Home sales (I). Pending home sales fell 10.2% in September, the biggest drop since April 2020.

Image
Bloomberg via @c_barraud

2. Home sales (II). "That dropped the pending home sales index to its lowest since 2010 (ex the trough of the COVID lockdowns crisis)".

JPM via TME

3. Housing market conditions. For buyers and sellers.

Image
@wallstjesus

4. Hawkish Fed. The "latest [Bloomberg survey of economists] shows Fed will maintain its hawkish stance next week, raising the prospects of US and global recessions".

Image
Bloomberg via @gregdaco

5. Too hawkish? "75% of economists said there’s a greater risk that the Fed will raise rates too much & cause unnecessary pain as opposed to not raising enough & failing to contain inflation".

Image
Bloomberg via @gregdaco

6. Employment Cost Index. The ECI dropped to 1.2% from 1.3% quarter-to-quarter (in line with expectations) while wages and benefits increased 1.3% and 1%, respectively.

Image
@gregdaco

7. Wages. Wages for private workers (blue) are now up 8.1% YoY, the lowest since March 2021.

Image
@zerohedge

8. Personal income & spending (I). Personal income and spending increased 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.

Zero Hedge

9. Personal income & spending (II). "On a YoY notional basis, spending continues to outpace income growth significantly, but both are slowing".

Zero Hedge

10. Personal saving (I). "The savings rate plunged to multi-decade lows at 3.1%, just shy of the record low 3.0%".

Zero Hedge


11. Personal saving (II). "Households saved about $2.2T during the initial pandemic and pandemic stimulus. Have spent out $0.7T of that maintaining consumption in the face of flat/declining real incomes. Still leaves about $1.5T--which could easily last a year".

Image
@jasonfurman

12. PCE (I). Monthly headline and core PCE rose by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively.

Image
@gregdaco

13. PCE (II). PCE YoY change in topline contributions.

Image

14. PCE (III). The same, but for top 5 subcomponent contributions.

Image

15. EM inflows. Emerging market equities just saw their largest inflows since April.

Image
@mikezaccardi

16. Resilient investor flows. Cumulative investor flows into equities and government bonds remain strong.

Image
@wallstjesus

17. De-grossing. "Hedge funds have been busy de-grossing aggressively lately, primarily driven by short covers and lesser because of long sales".

Goldman Sachs via TME

18. Bond inflows. Massive inflow to bonds from BofA private clients of late.

Image
@mikezaccardi

19. Bond positioning. “Positioning as proxied by JPM US Treasury client survey”.

JPM via TME

20. No more risk-free returns. "Long-term returns for US Treasuries at 50-year lows".

Image
BofA via @mayhem4markets

21. Record buyback authorizations. US share buybacks are being authorized at a record rate this year.

Image
Goldman Sachs via @ayeshatariq

22. Record buybacks. "Corporates are on pace to repurchase over $1.1T of U.S. stocks this year which will go down as the most in the history of the stock market".

Zero Hedge

23. Big Tech vs. S&P 495. "The divergence between market-weighted and equal-weighted indexes is entering silly territory".

Image
@zerohedge

24. Wide sector dispersion. "2022 looks set to host widest annual spread between best- and worst-performing S&P sectors, ever".

Image
@lizannsonders

25. Upside > downside. In October, “the average SPX move on ‘up’ days is over 2:1 that of the move magnitude on ‘down days’” and more stocks are participating in moves to the upside vs. downside.

Nomura via Zero Hedge

26. Q3 earnings (I). Stock price reactions to Q3 beats and misses (after 40% of S&P 500 reported).

JPM via TME

27. Q3 earnings (II). With 52% of the S&P 500 having reported, 71% beat EPS and 68% beat revenue estimates. Blended earnings growth of 2.2% (-5.1% excluding energy) is the lowest since Q3 2020.

Image
@mikezaccardi

28. Q3 earnings (III). “71% of [S&P 500] companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q3, which is below the 5-year average of 77% and below the 10-year average of 73%”.

Image

29. Q3 earnings (IV). “68% of [S&P 500] companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q3, which is below the 5-year average of 69% but above the 10-year average of 62%”.

Image
@factset

30. Earnings outlook (I). Expected earnings growth for CY 2022 is 6.1%. "For CY 2023, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 6.4%, down from 8.1% on Sept 30".

Image
@mikezaccardi

31. Earnings outlook (II). And finally, "the forward "Es" are coming down".

Image
@mikezaccardi

Have a great weekend!

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #73

www.dailychartbook.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing