Daily Chartbook #70
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Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. API stock change. "Analysts expected a second consecutive small crude draw last week, but instead API reports a major crude build (an unexpected build in distillates stocks also)".
2. Oil demand outlook. From Goldman: “We have revised downward our demand expectations for 2023 due to the weaker macroeconomic outlook”.
3. Home prices plunge (I). US home prices experienced the "biggest MoM drop since March 2009 and the slowest YoY growth since Feb 2021".
4. Home prices plunge (II). "The absolute drop in the growth rate of 2.62 percentage points is the largest ever".
5. Leading indicators. "United States leading indicators continue to weaken".
6. Too optimistic (I). "This figure from Torsten Slok at Apollo suggests to me that consensus inflation views are more likely too optimistic than too pessimistic".
7. Too optimistic (II). From Deutsche Bank: "History suggests it would be unusual to see inflation now fall back as quickly as consensus believes over the next 2 years. Current forecasts would be in the most optimistic decile of observations over this period".
8. M2. "The US Money Supply decreased 1.1% over the last 6 months, the largest decline over a 6-month period on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959)".
9. Richmond Fed. The manufacturing index " fell to -10 vs -5 est & 0 in Sept; new orders, business conditions & shipments all fell & are contracting; lead times plunged deeper into contraction … employment unchanged at 0 while wages ticked lower (but in expansion territory)".
10. Consumer confidence (I). The Conference Board's index dropped to 102.5 in October from 105.9 last month.
11. Consumer confidence (II). "Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained dismal. The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80—a level associated with recession—suggesting recession risks appear to be rising".
12. Confidence vs. Sentiment. "Given the gloomy signals from UMich (and history of the Conference Board overdoing things to the upside), is there more pain to come for the Conf Board measure…".
13. Recession probability. "Markets have re-priced lower the probability of a US recession in the next year".
14. If this, then that. "Every time the 10Y TIPS has been > US real GDP growth, a bear market in equities has followed".
15. Liquidity crisis. "Treasury liquidity index is currently near the levels reached during the liquidity crisis in March 2020".
16. 10-year yield volatility. "Today is actually the 40th trading day this year that the 10-year yield has moved 10 bps or more relative to the prior day's close…the highest [number of such days] since 2009".
17. Stocks vs bonds. "Last week has been one of the best for equities relative to bonds YTD".
18. Record put selling. "Investors at large, i.e., not only retails, sold more puts to open vs calls than they bought”.
19. Extreme single stock inflows. "In the past 3 weeks, inflows into single stocks as a percentage of the S&P 500's market cap were in the 99th percentile of history since 2008. Prior extremes like this were followed by above average returns over the subsequent months and one year later".
20. Buybacks. "Corp. client buybacks have remained elevated and above typical seasonal trends since the start of Oct., suggesting corporates may be taking advantage of valuations amid the sell-off".
21. High cash levels. “Large cap mutual funds have increased their cash holdings to the highest level since 2016”.
22. Record mutual fund outflows. "Mutual funds could end up with $1 trillion in outflows in 2022, doubling the record set in 2020".
23. Active manager performance. "39% of managers beat the index YTD vs. 35% average of last 10 years".
24. FANG vs. S&P 500. "From mid-June weak point, S&P 500 (orange) lagged popular/mega-cap growth names (blue), but dynamic recently reversed as latter cohort has taken lead".
25. Value vs. Growth. "Value is still 32% underweight vs. Growth".
26. S&P seasonality. “Almost all S&P 500 gains for 60 years occur November to April (green)”.
27. Equity put/call ratio. "Even with recent spike higher (shown by red line), equity put/call ratio (orange, 10d average) hasn’t yet gotten to prior stress points seen in bear markets of COVID, GFC, or tech bust".
28. Almost nowhere to hide. And finally, “with few exceptions, there have been two places to hide in 2022: oil, US dollars”.
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